基于改进序关系法的北京市水资源可持续利用评价  

The Evaluation of Water Resources Sustainable Utilization in Beijing Based on Improved Rank Correlation Analysis

作　　者：陈午[1] 许新宜[1] 王红瑞[1] 王崴[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2015年第1期164-176,共13页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279006,51479003);国家科技支撑计划(2013BAB05B04)

摘　　要：指标权重的确定是水资源综合评价工作的基础。前期的研究多采用单一的权重确定方法,致使评价结果存在差异。论文提出改进序关系法来确定指标权重,通过构建北京市水资源可持续利用评价指标体系,利用Spearman检验淘汰不通过一致性检验的专家指标排序,并运用循环修正的思路统一指标重要程度排序,最后通过相邻两个指标的标准差比值确定指标间的重要性比率,建立了基于改进序关系法的水资源可持续利用评价模型,并对北京市2005—2010年的水资源可持续利用状况进行评价。研究结果表明,通过改进序关系法确定指标权重,使得组合权重体现专家意见和指标数据信息,主客观权重分配的问题也得到了较好的解决。Determining the weights of indices is the foundation of comprehensive evaluation of water resources. Previous studies, usually using a single weight determination method, resulted in the differences of results. The paper proposed an improved method of rank correlation analysis to determine the weights of indices. Firstly, the evaluation index system of sustainable utilization of water resources of Beijing is constructed. Secondly, a consistency test on different orders given by experts is made and the orders that do not pass the consistency test are eliminated. And then, the thought of circular revision is used to unify the orders of index importance. Finally, the rate of importance is acquired by the ratios of the standard deviations between the two adjacent indices. The paper set up the evaluation model of water resource sustainable utilization in Beijing based on improved method of rank correlation analysis, and then the model was applied to appraise the water resources status of Beijing from 2005 to 2010. The research showed that the new weighing method of improved rank correlation analysis could reflect both experts＇ opinion and data information. It also settled the problem of allocating subjective and objective weights.

关 键 词：水资源 指标权重 改进序关系法 可持续利用 北京市 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]