我国公共债务对三次产业增长的动态影响研究  

On Dynamic Effects of China's Public Debt on the Three Industrial Growths

作　　者：齐红倩[1] 庄晓季[2] 席旭文 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心暨商学院,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学商学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《深圳大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2015年第3期109-115,共7页Journal of Shenzhen University：Humanities & Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"基于生产要素集聚与农民福利动态均衡的新型城镇化发展质量研究"(14BJL063);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"调整型经济增长对我国居民可持续性消费影响的实证研究"(13JJD790011);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"中国新生代农民工收入状况与消费行为研究"(12JZD028)

摘　　要：发行公共债务是实施扩张性财政政策,进而刺激三次产业和经济增长的重要途径和有效手段。在理论分析的基础上,利用1981-2013年时间序列数据,建立可变参数状态空间模型,研究我国公共债务对实体经济及三次产业的动态影响特征。实证结果表明,公共债务流量和存量对我国实体经济及三次产业增长均具有正向的促进作用,其影响程度呈不断增强的态势,并且债务存量的产业增长效应强于债务流量;债务流量对第二产业的促进作用最为明显,而债务存量更能促进第三产业的增长。因此,在保持债务总量可控的前提下,应通过合理调整公共债务投资方向,促进产业结构调整和均衡发展,实现经济持续平稳增长。Issuing public debt is an important and effective way to implement expansionary fiscal policy and stimulate the three industrial and economic growths. Based on theoretical analysis, this paper uses the time series data from 1981 to 2013, and builds variable parameter state space models to study the dynamic effects of China＇s public debts on the real economy and the three industrial and economic growths. The empirical results indicate public debt flows and stocks have increasingly positive impact on China＇s real economy and the three industrial and economic growths. Besides, public debt stocks promote industrial growth better than debt flows. Debt flows have the most significant positive effect on the second industry while debt stocks give a greater boost to the third industry. Therefore, on the premise that we can keep the total debt under control, we should promote industrial structure adjustment and balanced development to achieve sustainable economic growth by reorienting？public debt investment.

关 键 词：公共债务 实体经济 三次产业 状态空间模型 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]