基于统计学与新安江模型相结合的土地利用变化引起的径流响应分析方法  

Land Use Change in Response to Runoff Based on Combination Statistics with Xinanjiang Model

作　　者：张乾[1] 包为民[1,2] 杨小强[1] 陈伟东[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2015年第7期12-15,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51279057;4137104);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(40901015);水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201401034)

摘　　要：鉴于水文模型评价土地利用变化的特点,实际上水文模型的参数也可反映流域水文特性和降雨径流过程,不同时期的最优参数可以反映流域系统的变化。将统计学方法与水文模型相结合,分析土地利用变化对径流的影响,即先利用统计学方法判断降雨径流的趋势,找出降雨径流系列的突变点并据此划分不同时期,然后对不同时期日模型参数进行优选,并对参数变化结果进行对比分析。在大坡岭流域的应用表明,该方法对土地利用变化引起的径流响应分析行之有效。Hydrological model can be used to assess the characteristics of land use change. Actually, the parameters of the model can reflect the hydrological feature of the basin and the process of rainfall-runoff. The optimal parameters in different period can reveal the variation of catchment system. The combination of statistical methods and hydrological model was used to analyze the impacts of land use change on the runoff. Firstly, the statistical method was adopted to find the trend of the rainfall-runoff and the sudden change point was found. Based on this, the different periods were sep- arated. Secondly, the parameters of the daily model were optimized for different periods. The variation of parameters was contrastive analysis. The application in Dapoling Basin shows that the method was effective for studying the response of land use change on the runoff.

关 键 词：Mann-Kendall检验法 双累积曲线 新安江模型 变化检验 径流响应 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P343.9[天文地球—水文科学]