基于可信性规划的昆明市水资源优化配置模型  

A Credibility Planning Model of Optimal Water Resources Allocation for Kunming City

作　　者：陶子乐滔 王静[2] 蔡怡馨 储娅 彭云[3] 张连根[3] 李靖[3] 

机构地区：[1]云南农业大学资源与环境学院,云南昆明650201 [2]云南农业大学水利学院,云南昆明650201 [3]云南农业大学城乡规划设计研究院,云南昆明650201

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2015年第7期30-33,29,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD40B02);水利部科技推广计划项目(2014TG1411)

摘　　要：针对缺水型城市水资源配置过程中存在的不确定性和复杂性等问题,建立了基于可信性规划理论的模糊机会约束规划模型,同时设计了基于模糊模拟的鱼群算法进行求解,并将其应用于昆明市水资源优化配置中。在模拟模型中各规划水平年的可信性均达到决策需要数值,表明昆明市整体在决策需要置信条件下处于可持续发展状态,缺水环境影响下的水资源配置结果满足城市发展需求。在配置中决策者可设定不同的置信水平进行分析评价,在风险和收益两方面的中间确定平衡点,使最终决策方案尽可能为最优解。Motivated by the uncertainty and complexity in water resource allocation of water shortage city, a fuzzy chance constrained programming model based the credibility theory of planning is established. And then the fish swarm algorithm is designed to solve the model based on the fuzzy simulation. At the same time, the model is applied to study the optimal allocation model of water resource in Kunming City. The credibility of simulation model in each planning years are reached the decision value. It means that the Kunming City is in the state of sustainable development at the con- fidence conditions of decision demand. Under the water scarcity environment, the water resource allocation results meet the requirements of urban development. The decision-maker can analyze the configuration and determine the equilibrium point between the risk and the profit by setting different confidence level so that the final decision can be the optimal solu- tion as soon as possible.

关 键 词：可信性规划 水资源优化配置 模糊模拟 鱼群算法 昆明市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]