洪水预报误差在河道演算中的传递分析  

Stochastic Transfers of Inflow Forecast Errors in River Flood Routing

作　　者：闫宝伟[1] 康爱卿[2] 黄凯旋[1] 汤川[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]山西省水文水资源勘测局,山西太原030001

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2015年第7期62-65,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51109085);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(HUST:2013QN116;2015QN216)

摘　　要：考虑入流过程洪水预报误差的随机性,基于Nash汇流理论建立了河道洪水演算的随机模型,在预报误差近似独立且服从正态分布时,推导了出流过程的计算公式和方差函数,定义了洪水预报误差随机性的传递函数,分析了洪水预报误差的随机性在河道洪水演算过程中的传递特征。实例应用结果表明,上游入流的洪水预报误差经过河槽调蓄或经由Nash汇流模型演算后,其不确定性会大为降低。同时,根据建立的河道洪水演算随机模型,还可以确定出流过程的置信区间,从而为估计河道防洪控制断面可能出现的风险提供理论依据。A stochastic river flood routing model based Nash flow concentration theory was built in consideration of the stochastic inflow forecast errors. The downstream outflow process and its variance function were deduced under the assumption of independently and identically normally distributed errors. The uncertainty of the outflow caused by the sto- chastic inflow forecast errors was characterized by the stochastic transfer function. Case study shows that the uncertainty of the outflow decreases after the river flow routing or via the calculation of Nash flow routing model. Confidence inter- vals of the forecast can also be determined by the proposed stochastic model, which may provide scientific evidence for es- timating of the risk of flood control section.

关 键 词：河道洪水演算 预报误差 Nash汇流理论 不确定性 传递函数 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]