基于EEF模型的昆明市生态系统发展状态评价  

Evaluation on the Development Status of Ecological System in Kunming City Based on EEF Model

作　　者：尚海龙[1] 徐荣民[1] 罗永常[1] 龙纯娥 杨廷锋[1] 蒋焕洲[1] 

机构地区：[1]凯里学院旅游学院,贵州凯里556011 [2]凯里学院教育学院,贵州凯里556011

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2015年第10期2522-2526,共5页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：贵州省教育厅人文社科项目(11ZC080)

摘　　要：运用能值分析理论改进的生态足迹模型（EEF）,对昆明市2002-2011年能值足迹的动态变化进行分析,并应用GM（1,1）模型,对未来10年人均能值进行预测。结果发现：EEF模型的计算数值明显高于传统模型;昆明市生态系统出现盈余,处于可持续发展状态;在自然环境、经济状况不发生“突变”的前提下,2012-2020年人均能值盈余呈下降趋势且年均递减率为20.57%,尽管生态系统没有赤字,但生态安全面临严峻挑战。本研究对“新昆明”建设及其生态系统的可持续发展将有着重要的启示。The dynamic changes of emergy footprint in Kunming city during 2002-2011 was analyzed by ecological footprint model （EEF） modified with the theory of emergy analysis. And the per capita emergy for the next ten years was predicted by GM （1.1） model. The results showed that the calculation of EEF model was obviously higher than that of traditional model. There would be surplus in ecological system of Kunming city, thus was in sustainable development status. Under the condi- tion of natural environment and no sudden change of economic status, the per capita emergy surplus would be declining in 2012-2020 with the average annual decline rate at 0.57%. Although no deficit in ecological system, there would be severe challenge of ecological safety. The study is of important enlightenment for the construction of ＂New Kunming＂ and sustainable development of ecological systems.

关 键 词：EEF模型 情景预测 “新昆明”建设 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]