建设项目风险研究评价及未来展望  

Review and Future Prospect of Construction Project Risk Research

作　　者：曹吉鸣[1] 申良法 许远祥 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济管理学院,上海200092 [2]中国房地产开发集团公司,北京100037

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2015年第7期8-12,共5页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70972072);上海市重点学科建设项目(B310)

摘　　要：关于建设项目风险的探讨和研究一直是热点研究问题。回顾相关文献发现,仅仅通过理论评述的方式难以对相关研究进行清晰的梳理以及对前沿方向进行深刻的把握,为此文章结合文献计量学和引文分析学的相关理论和方法,在回顾建设项目风险概念发展和技术方法的演进历程的基础上,通过对研究热点和前沿的探析,指出建设项目风险研究未来可能出现突破性成果的五大契机:项目风险概念认知的进步;新技术下建设领域行业形态的发展;新的建模技术方法的发展和引入;行为和决策心理科学的发展与融合;系统观点和理论的引入与应用。Construction project risk has been a research focus for a long period. It was a difficult thing to sort out diverse related research clearly and grasp the research frontier cogently only by theoretical review. Soin addition totheoretical review, this paper combined the theory and methods of literature metrology and citation analysis, on the basis of reviewing the history of concept development and technological evolution in the field of construction project risk, pointed out five opportunities for breakthrough results in the future ：progress in the understanding of concept in this field; industry form development in the background of new technology; development and introduction of novel modeling techniques and methods development and integration of behavior science and decision-making psychology;introduction and application of systems engineering science.

关 键 词：建设项目 项目风险 风险管理 项目管理 

分 类 号：F284[经济管理—国民经济]