溢出递减与持续挤出:外资零售在华影响再议  

Diminishing Spillover Effects and Increasing Crowding-out Effects:Reconsideration of the Influence of Foreign-funded Retailers in China

作　　者：艾文卫[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学商学院,北京100872

出　　处：《商业经济与管理》2015年第8期14-21,共8页Journal of Business Economics

基　　金：北京市"国内外联合培养研究生"项目;中国人民大学研究基金项目"国内贸易活动的基础理论综合与研究方法创新"项目(13XNI009)

摘　　要：文章研究零售业中外资溢出的非线性效应。理论分析表明,外资进入不仅会通过模仿示范效应、技术扩散效应、竞争效应、产业关联效应四种渠道对本土零售业产生正向溢出效应,也会通过争夺商圈资源和独占供应商等途径对本土零售业产生负向挤出效应。并且,随着FDI规模持续扩大,溢出效应会逐渐释放完毕,而挤出效应始终存在并不断上升成为主导效应,使得零售业存在倒U型溢出效应曲线。以全国28个地区2005-2012年的面板数据进行实证分析,结果印证了上述理论判断。进一步分析可知,全国多数地区零售业FDI规模已经超过最佳水平、位于挤出效应主导区间。This paper studies the nonlinear FDI spillover effects in retailing industry. The theoretical analysis indicates that inward FDI can not only exert positive spillover effects on Chinese retailing industry through demonstration effects,competition effects,technology diffusion effects and industry correlation effects,but also cause negative crowding-out effects by competing with local retailing industry for trading area and supplier resources etc. Moreover,with the growing of FDI,the positive spillover effects will diminish while crowding-out effects keep rising to become the leading effects so that there exists an inversed U-shaped curve regarding spillover effects in the retailing industry. Furthermore,based on panel data of 28 provinces and regions from 2005-2012,this paper conducts empirical analysis and the results prove the theoretical conclusion mentioned above. Further calculation shows that FDI scales in most regions in China have exceeded the optimum value and are within the dominant range where crowding-out effect leads.

关 键 词：零售业 FDI 倒U型曲线 溢出效应 挤出效应 

分 类 号：F713[经济管理—产业经济]