基于协整理论和VAR模型的河南省环境污染驱动因素研究  

Research on Driving Factors of Environment Pollution Based on Co-integration Analysis and Vector Autoregressive Model

作　　者：马孟华 宋文博[2] 丁艳喜 孟庆香[2,4] 郭子龙[2] 尚一珂 

机构地区：[1]郑州市土地利用规划院,河南郑州450006 [2]河南农业大学资源环境学院,河南郑州450002 [3]河南今辰信息科技有限公司,河南郑州450002 [4]河南省高校农业资源与环境工程技术研究中心,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2015年第3期162-167,共6页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：中国地质调查局项目"中原经济区资源环境承载力综合评价与区划"(12120113007300)

摘　　要：[目的]分析河南省环境污染的驱动力机制,为经济发展与环境规划提供理论支撑。[方法]尝试从动态的视角来解读河南省环境污染问题,借助协整分析、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解对河南省环境污染的驱动因素进行分析。[结果]人均GPD,第二产业比重,总人口,外商投资强度以及政府管制水平与环境污染指数存在长期协整关系,且系统存在误差修正机制;脉冲响应函数结果显示,人均GDP,第二产业比重,总人口长期会加剧环境污染,外商投资强度对环境具有微弱地积极影响,政府管制水平对环境影响不明显;方差分解结果显示,总人口是环境污染的主要原因,其次是第二产业比重和人均GDP。[结论]调整人口布局和优化产业结构是河南省未来控制环境污染的发展方向。[Objective]To analyze the driving mechanism of environmental pollution,and privide support for economic derelopment and enviromental planning in Henan Province.[Methods]To interpret the dynamic changes in the environmental pollution of He＇nan Province and its relationships with some driving forces based on co-integration analysis,error-correct model,impulse response function,and variance decomposition.[Results]Over all,environmental pollution had long-term co-integration relationship with GDP per capita,proportion of secondary industry,total population,foreign direct investment and government regulation,and the error correction mechanism existed.The impulse response analysis showed that GDP per capita,proportion of secondary industry and total population aggravated environmental pollution,while foreign direct investment had slightly positive impacts and government regulation has insignificant effects.According to the results of variance decomposition,total population was the most important factor for environmental pollution,followed by proportion of secondary industry and GDP per capita.[Conclusion]Rationalizing the population distribution and optimizing industrial structure is the future development orientation for environment pollution control.

关 键 词：环境污染 驱动因素 遗传算法 协整分析 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]