基于Weibull分布的超高压变电站二次设备寿命预测  

Supertension Substation Secondary Equipment Life Prediction Based on Weibull Distribution

作　　者：董海鹰[1] 马博[1] 杨立霞[1] 任伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学自动化与电气工程学院,兰州730070 [2]甘肃省电力公司检修公司,兰州730050

出　　处：《上海应用技术学院学报（自然科学版）》2015年第3期277-281,共5页Journal of Shanghai Institute of Technology: Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61165006)

摘　　要：针对超高压变电站二次设备检修科学依据不足的问题,给出了一种基于Weibull分布的二次设备寿命预测方法.在对二次设备运行状态信息分析的基础上,建立了超高压变电站二次设备寿命预测模型.在该寿命预测模型中,对表征二次设备各功能模块运行状态信息进行了分类,通过二参数Weibull分布模型得到了超高压变电站二次设备的剩余使用寿命,并进行了实例分析.结果表明,基于Weibull分布的寿命预测模型能够实现超高压变电站二次设备剩余使用寿命的预测,为超高压变电站二次设备的维护和检修提供了依据.In view of the problem of insufficient scientific basis of supertension substation secondary equipment maintenance and repair, a life prediction method of secondary equipment based on Weibull distribution was presented. Based on the running state information analysis of the secondary equipment, secondary equipment life prediction model was established. In the life prediction model, running status information of each function module of secondary equipment was classified, secondary equipment was obtained by two parameter Weibull distribution model of residual service life and the instance analysis was carried out. Analysis results showed that the life prediction model based on Weibull distribution could achieve the residual service life prediction of the secondary equipment, to provide a basis for the maintenance and overhaul of supertension substation secondary equipments.

关 键 词：超高压变电站 二次设备 WEIBULL分布 寿命预测 

分 类 号：TM63[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]