安康水库入库洪水预报误差分布形式  

Discussion on Distribution of Inflow Forecast Errors of Ankang Reservoir

作　　者：刘招[1] 王青[1] 贾志峰[1] 席秋义[2] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学水与发展研究院,陕西西安710064 [2]陕西电力科学研究院,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《人民黄河》2015年第7期41-43,共3页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51009008);高等学校学科创新引智计划项目(B08039)

摘　　要：为进一步探讨水库预报入库洪水误差可能服从的概率分布形式,在分析预报入库洪水、实测入库洪水和实际入库洪水之间关系的基础上,采用入库洪水误差的不同定义方式分别生成预报入库洪水误差序列,进而对误差序列的分布类型进行了假设检验和论证。以安康水库为例,分别对正态分布、对数正态分布、Gamma分布等十余种洪水预报误差可能服从的概率分布类型进行验证,结果表明:安康水库入库洪水预报误差序列符合Logistic分布规律,而不符合正态分布、皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布等其他类型分布。同目前广泛采用的正态分布相比,对于一些水库,采用Logistic分布类型可能会更好地表达其入库流量预报误差的概率特性。For ascertaining probability distribution type of inflow forecast error of reservoir flood,the concepts and relationship among forecast flood inflow,measured flood inflow and actual flood inflow of a reservoir was discussed firstly,then the error series of inflow forecast was de fined based on two different ways. Taken Ankang Reservoir for an example,several probability distribution types such as Gaussian distribu tion,Pearson Ⅲ distribution and so on,were discussed for fitting the series by hypothesis testing. The results show that the inflow forecast error series comply with Logistic distribution under the first definition,Gaussian distribution,Pearson Ⅲ distribution and other probability distribution types can not be accepted on the contrary;it indicates that Logistic distribution will have an extensive application on flood fore cast and prediction error analysis.

关 键 词：入库洪水 预报误差 概率分布 安康水库 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]