惠州市龙门县低温的预报技术初探  

A Preliminary Investigation of Forecasting Techniques of Chilly Weather in Longmen County

作　　者：杜小松[1] 张子凡[1] 李伟权 杨智 

机构地区：[1]惠州市气象局,广东惠州516001 [2]龙门县气象局,广东惠州516801

出　　处：《广东气象》2015年第3期36-38,共3页Guangdong Meteorology

摘　　要：通过对龙门县1980—2008年冬季低温天气资料普查,用天气学和数理回归统计方法对龙门县冬季气温低于5℃时的低温天气进行从定性到定量的预报;首先根据天气系统将低温天气型分为平流型、辐射型和混合型降温3种形势,再根据不同的天气型建立预报判据和模型做出定量的低温天气预报。经过近3年的实际业务应用及检验,效果显著。Through a general survey of the data of chilly weather in the 28 winters from 1980 to 2008 in Longmen County, the chilly weather with temperature lower than 5 ℃ is forecast qualitatively and quantitatively using the methods of synoptics and numerical regression statistics. First, synoptic systems associated with the chilly weather are classified into three patterns of advection, radiation and advection mixing with radiation. Then, these patterns are used to set up forecasting criteria and models to formulate quantitative forecasts of chilly weather. With three years of operational use and testing, the result is satisfactory.

关 键 词：天气预报 低温 辐射 龙门县 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]