白山市土地利用/覆被变化轨迹分析与趋势预测  

Land Use/Cover Change Trajectories and Tendency Forecast in Baishan City

作　　者：黄方[1] 张学敏 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学地理科学学院,吉林长春130024 [2]内蒙古霍林郭勒市规划局,内蒙古霍林郭勒029200

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2015年第3期439-451,共13页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271196);国家自然科学青年科学基金项目(41101434)

摘　　要：以地形图、Landsat TM、ETM+遥感影像和社会经济统计数据为基础,在GIS技术支持下,利用时间序列追踪方法分析了长白山腹地白山市1954—2006年土地利用/覆被变化过程,基于CA-Markov模型对2026年该区土地利用/覆被变化趋势进行预测.结果表明,近52年白山市林地净减少749.04km2,1976—1986年下降最明显.耕地面积增加了832.25km2,在1954—1976年期间增速最快.时间轨迹充分揭示了LUCC过程及其在空间上的分异特征,其中人为因素引起的土地利用/覆被变化为主,轨迹面积为2705.17km2,占土地总面积的15.51%,以林地、草地与耕地之间转换为主,反映了人口增长、经济发展的需求和国家林业政策的变化.自然因素驱动的变化轨迹面积较小,仅占土地总面积的2.61%,典型变化轨迹与台风和洪涝灾害的影响有关.LUCC轨迹主要分布在坡度0°—3°、草甸土、侵蚀剥蚀中起伏中山区以及500m道路缓冲区等人类活动比较剧烈的区域.未来20年,白山市耕地增幅最大,到2026年预测面积达1857.43km2,林地将净减少363.89km2,居住及工矿用地呈继续扩张趋势.Integrating Landsat MSS,TM and ETM ＋ remote sensing images,topographic maps,socioeconomic statistics data,and geographical information systems（ GIS）,land use / cover change trajectories in Baishan City,the core area of the Changbai Mountain Region,were obtained and analyzed for the period of 1954—2006. The CA-Markov model was used to simulate trends in land use change from 2006 to 2026. The results indicated that land use / cover altered evidently in the past 52 years. Forest land decreased by 749. 04km2,and the highest rate of decline occurred between 1976 and 1986. Cultivated area increased by 832. 25km2,and the annual growth from 1954 to 1976 was the fastest. Trajectories at every pixel were acquired to trace the history of land use / cover change for each location in the study area. The area of change trajectories driven by human factors was 2705. 17km2,accounting for 15. 51% of the total land area. The conversions of forestland,grassland,and cultivated land reflected the population growth,economic development demands,and changes in national forestry policies. The change trajectories associated with natural factors only occupied 2. 61% of the landscape,and the typical trajectories were caused by typhoons and floods. It was found that LUCC trajectories in Baishan City were mainly distributed in regions of 0°—3° slope,which were more suitable for human activities. Likewise,most change trajectories took place in regions of meadow soil,erosion-denudation,moderate undulating middle mountains,or within a 0—500m buffer area of road. It is predicted that cultivated land in Baishan will rise to 1857. 43km2 in 2026,while the net decrease in forest area will be 363. 89km2. Residential and industrial lands tend to extend and are projected to increase to 53. 53km2.

关 键 词：土地利用/覆被变化 时间序列追踪分析 CA-Markov模型 GIS 白山市 

分 类 号：K903[历史地理—人文地理学] P96[天文地球—自然地理学]