农业自然灾害对主产区小麦产量的影响  

Impact of Natural Disasters on Wheat Yield in Main Wheat Producing Areas

作　　者：华静[1] 王玉斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2015年第6期57-60,共4页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

基　　金：2013年农业农村资源监测统计项目<主要农业气象灾害对粮食生产影响的分析研究>(21083029)

摘　　要：我国气候各异、灾害频发,农业自然灾害对粮食产量的影响明显。利用2000—2013年小麦主产区15个省的省级面板数据,采用拉格朗日插值法测度无灾害条件下小麦的预期产量,把握农业自然灾害对小麦产量的影响。为进一步掌握农业自然灾害对小麦产量的影响系数,构建主产区小麦产量的生产函数模型,根据模型结果可知农业自然灾害的成灾率对小麦产量的弹性系数为-0.172,说明成灾率对小麦产量具有显著的负效应。同时以模型结果为依据,提出提高小麦产量的对策建议,有效提高小麦抵抗农业自然灾害的能力。Climatic conditions in China vary greatly, meteorological disasters occur frequently, and agr/cultural natural disasters have serious impact on the yield of grain crops. Based on the provincial panel data of main wheat pro- ducing regions in 15 provinces from 2000 to 2013, Lagrange interpolation was applied to forecast the wheat yield without disaster, so as to figure out the impact of agricultural natural disasters on wheat yield. To further master the in- fluence coefficient of agricultural natural disasters on wheat yield, the production function model of wheat yield in main wheat producing regions was established. According to the model, the coefficient of elasticity of agricultural natural disas- ter to wheat yield was -0.172, showing the significant negative impact of disas- ter frequency on wheat yield. In addition, suggestions were proposed on the basis of the model results, so as to improve the wheat resistance against agricultural nat- ural disasters.

关 键 词：农业自然灾害 小麦主产区 小麦产量 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]