城镇化背景下基于产业结构高级化的物流发展模式与战略路径研究  

Research on the Development Mode and Strategic Path of Logistics Based on the Upgrading of the Industrial Structure under the Background of Urbanization

作　　者：谢泗薪[1] 侯蒙[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学经济与管理学院,天津300300

出　　处：《价格月刊》2015年第7期45-50,共6页

基　　金：天津市科技发展战略研究计划重点项目"进一步促进科技服务业做大做优的对策研究"(编号:14ZLZLZF00011)

摘　　要：以城镇化为研究背景，从我国物流业发展与产业结构高级化相互关系入手，截取1980年-2013年32个观测年份的时间序列数据．建立了物流业发展与城镇化率和产业结构的VAR模型，并在此基础上运用Gmnger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法分析3个变量在研究时段中的关系。研究结果显示：物流业发展对我国产业结构高级化和城镇化进程具有明显的促进作用：而产业结构调整和城镇化率的提高短期内对物流业发展的促进作用并不明显。这表明我国物流业本身并未达到理想状态，还需要加大对物流业的投资和政策支持。基于此，提出了当前我国物流业发展的新模式和战略路径选择。In order to study the relationship between the development of the logistics industry and the upgrading of the in- dustrial structure under the background of the urbanization in China, this paper selects a time series data to build a VAR. model with the logistics industry development, the Urbanization rate and the industrial structure from 1980 to 2013. Then we analyze the relationship between these three variables by Granger Causality test, Impulse response function and Variance decomposition on the basis of the VAR. The result shows like this： firsdy, the development of logistics industry has a promoting effect to the upgrading of the industrial structure and the urbanization process. Secondly, industrial structure adjustment and urbanization rate do little to the logistics industry in the short term. This suggests that the logistics industry does not reach the ideal state, thus we should increase investment to the logistics industry and give it more policy support. Based on this, this paper puts forward the new development mode and the strategic path selection of the logistics industry in our country at present.

关 键 词：物流发展模式 城镇化率 产业结构 

分 类 号：F250[经济管理—国民经济]