资本品短缺、货币紧缩与中国总产出下降(1914—1918)——基于“供给约束型经济”前提的研究  

Shortage of Capital Goods,Monetary Squeeze and Decrease of China's Aggregate Supply(1914-1918)——Research Based on Assumption of Supply-Constrained Economy

作　　者：刘巍[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学中国计量经济史研究中心

出　　处：《中国经济史研究》2015年第4期5-14,142,共11页Researches in Chinese Economic History

摘　　要：本文在"供给约束型经济"前提下建立了近代中国经济增长函数,实证结果表明,进口和货币量是中国经济增长的主要影响因素。一战期间中国资本品进口严重受阻,近代工业实际到位的投资呈下降趋势,造成总供给曲线无法右移,总供给的瓶颈效应愈发严重,经济负增长不可避免。同时,由于国际银价上涨导致的白银外流,造成近代中国经济增长函数的另一个正相关解释变量——货币供给——发生了萎缩,进一步打击了中国经济。一战时期是中国经济的衰退期,且衰退程度较深,从长期来看,是近代中国50年期间表现最差的一个短周期。A modern Chinese economic growth function was built based on Assumption of supply-Constrained Economy.The Empirical results indicate that import and supply of money were primary factors of China's economic growth.China's imports of capital goods were hindered and the actual capital of modern industry showed a trend of decline during World War I,and then triggered the bottleneck effect of the aggregate supply and Negative growth.At the same time China's silver outflow reduced the money supply,which is another important positive correlation in Modern Chinese Economic growth function.China experienced severe recession during World War I.It was the worst economic cycle in the modern china.

关 键 词：资本品进口 投资 货币量 经济增长 第一次世界大战 

分 类 号：F822.9[经济管理—财政学] F129