中国城市制造业就业对服务业就业的乘数效应  

Urbanization,Economic Agglomeration and Employment Multiplier Effects in China

作　　者：袁志刚[1] 高虹[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,邮政编码200433

出　　处：《经济研究》2015年第7期30-41,共12页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZD074)的资助

摘　　要：城市制造业就业的扩张会对本地的服务业就业产生促进作用,但这种就业乘数效应的大小会受到城镇化水平和城市规模的影响。本文利用中国地级城市2003—2012年的数据,使用工具变量的方法,估计了城市制造业就业对服务业就业的乘数效应。研究发现,城市制造业就业每增加1%,会带来服务业就业约0.435%的上升,其中生活性服务业的受益程度最大。此外,城镇化水平的提高和城市规模的扩大,会对制造业就业的乘数效应产生促进作用。只有在城镇化和城市规模达到一定水平的地区,制造业就业的扩张才会显著地促进服务业就业的增长。而在城镇化水平较低或城市规模不足的地区,没有发现显著的制造业就业乘数效应。Whether place-based policies are effective or not is a central topic in urban economics. The magnitude of employment multiplier effect is of great importance for local government policies. Using city level employment data from China in 2003—2012, the multiplier effect of manufacturing employment on local service employment is investigated. Regression results from instrumental variable estimations show that manufacturing employments have significantly positive influences on local service employments. Every one percent increase in manufacturing jobs increases the city＇s service jobs by 0. 435%. The multiplier effect is the largest for consumer services. Besides, we find that employment multiplier effect is influenced by urbanization and city scale. Employment multiplier effect only exists in cities with higher urbanization rates and larger city scales. In those less urbanized or smaller cities, however, changes in service employments are not influenced by changes in manufacturing employments.

关 键 词：地方性经济发展政策 就业乘数效应 城镇化 经济集聚 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F719F249.2