江苏近35年空中水汽资源气候特征及开发潜力分析  

Analysis of Climatic Characteristics of Water Vapor Resource and Its Exploitation Potential in Jiangsu Province in Recent 35 Years

作　　者：陈钰文 王佳 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气候中心,南京210000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2015年第21期167-176,共10页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家973计划项目"东亚季风区年际-年代际气候变率机理与预测研究"(2012CB955204);江苏气象科研基金"基于不同双参数云方案的人影云水数值预报模式集成"(KM201403);江苏气象科研基金"数值预报产品在云水预报中释用"(KM201107);江苏气象科研基金"江苏空中水资源特征分析研究"(Q201205);江苏气象科研基金"CORDEX-EA多模式对江苏气温的模拟评估和集成预估"(Q201516);国家公益性行业科研专项"多源测风资料融合技术研究及其在风能资源评估中的应用"(GYHY201306050)

摘　　要：研究旨在精细化分析江苏空中水汽资源气候特征与开发潜力。笔者应用高分辨率再分析资料,计算资源总量及降水效率,给出空间分布、季节变化、长期变化趋势与模态。结果表明:江苏上空水汽资源(Q)达9223 mm,降水效率(P)仅11.4%,近35年减少量约3 mm/a,异常主要表现为一致偏多或偏少、南北反相2类空间型。Q与P均呈南多北少的纬向分布,其中淮北Q、P最低,且秋、冬季P持续下降,环太湖与沿海Q、P在春、夏、秋3季均呈下降趋势,宁镇扬Q、P在春、秋季也呈下降趋势。春季Q减少量最大,达4.4 mm/a,P南多北少的差异最大达18%,秋季P最低,仅8.4%。可见,江苏空中水汽资源开发潜力巨大,需加强春、秋季开发力度,以及冬季以淮北、夏季以环太湖与沿海为重点区的开发力度。In order to do fine analysis on climatic characteristics of water vapor resource and its exploitationpotential in Jiangsu Province, the EAR-Interim high resolution reanalysis data was applied to calculate thetotal amount of water vapor resource and its precipitation percentage, presentations of spatial distribution,seasonal variation characteristics, climate change trend and modes. The results showed that： the amount ofwater vapor resource（Q） in Jiangsu was 9223 mm in annual average and its precipitation percentage（P） was11.4%. The resource（Q） exhibited a declining trend of 3 mm/a and had two typical anomaly patterns in thepast 35 years. The first pattern was a high spatial consistency of anomalies, while the second pattern showed ananti-phase relation of variation in the northern and southern regions. Q and P exhibited the distribution ofsouth more and north less. In North Huai River, Q and P was the lowest, and the trend of P declined in autumnand winter. Around Tai Hu Lake and the coastal region, Q and P both declined in spring, autumn and winter.In Ning-Zhen-Yang Region, the declining trends of Q and P appeared in spring and autumn. In spring, thedeclining trend of Q was the maximum with 4.4 mm/a, and the characteristic of south more and north less wasthe most significant with the maximum of 18%. In autumn, P was the minimum, only 8.4%. It is concluded thatthe exploitation potential of the water vapor resource in Jiangsu is tremendous. The intensity of the exploitation must be increased in spring and autumn, winter around the key region of North Huai River and summer aroundTai Hu Lake and the coastal region.

关 键 词：空中水汽资源 时空变化特征 开发潜力 ERA-Interim高分辨率再分析资料 精细化分析 

分 类 号：P481[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]