干旱区大城市水资源利用变化过程及驱动效应分析——以乌鲁木齐为例  

Analysis of change process and influence factors of water resource utilization in megalopolis of arid area: a case study of Urumqi city

作　　者：张豫芳[1] 杨德刚[1] 唐宏[2] 刘雅轩[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]四川农业大学四川省农村发展研究中心,成都611130 [3]新疆财经大学经济学院,乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《中国科学院大学学报（中英文）》2015年第4期528-535,共8页Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：中国科学院西部博士课题(XBBS201108)资助

摘　　要：综合考虑经济发展水平、人口规模、产业用水效率及水资源开发利用程度等因素,建立全要素分解模型和运用LMDI分解方法对1995—2012年乌鲁木齐市用水过程的驱动因素进行分解分析.结果表明:经济发展水平与用水强度是乌鲁木齐市用水总量变化的决定因素;产业用水结构、经济发展水平、用水强度是影响乌鲁木齐市用水效益变动的决定性因素.产业结构调整和产业技术升级对用水总量增加有一定抑制作用,但作用不强.人均供水量的增长在一定程度上对资源利用效率变化起到抑制作用.Urumqi was selected as the object for this study. Through constructing an all-factor decomposition model,Logarithmic mean Divisia index（ LMDI） decomposition method was used to conduct decomposition analyses on the factors that caused the change process of water resource utilization in Urumqi from 1995 to 2012. The results indicated that economy development level and water use intensity,and the effects of industrial water use structures,economy level,and water use intensity were the determinant factors that influenced the water use consumption and efficiency,respectively. The adjustment of industrial structures and the upgrading of industrial technologies caused certain inhibitory effects on the total water consumption,but these effects were not strong.The amount of water supply per capital had inhibitory effects in certain extent on water resource utilization efficiency.

关 键 词：LMDI分解法 用水效率 用水总量 乌鲁木齐市 

分 类 号：TV214[水利工程—水文学及水资源]