中国外需隐含国内就业及其影响因素分析  

Analysis on Domestic Employment Embodied in China's Foreign Demand and its Determinants

作　　者：卫瑞[1] 张文城[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系

出　　处：《统计研究》2015年第6期42-49,共8页Statistical Research

基　　金：2014年度福建省社科规划项目(青年博士论文项目)"对外贸易与中国就业变化:基于MRIO模型和SDA技术的分析"(2014C044);"中国对外贸易的碳排放转移效应及碳排放责任研究"(2014C045)资助

摘　　要：基于世界投入产出数据库,本文采用MRIO模型测算了1995—2009年中国外需隐含国内就业的变动趋势,并采用结构分解方法分析了9种因素对中国外需隐含国内就业变化的影响。结果显示:1995—2009年,每年中国外需隐含国内就业增长了76.55%,但低技能就业始终是外需隐含就业的主体。外国最终需求产品来源地结构变动、中国前向国际产业关联变动和外国最终需求规模变动是促进中国外需隐含国内就业增长的最主要因素。但中国国内生产部门劳动投入强度变动和最终需求产品结构变动不利于中国外需隐含国内就业增长。为此,可以通过加快生产性服务业对外开放和促进生产性服务出口来扩大就业渠道,提升就业质量。Based on World Input-Output Database,this paper uses MRIO model to estimate domestic employment embodied in China＇s foreign demand and analyzes influences of 9 factors on its change. The results reveal that from 1995 to2009,domestic employment embodied in China＇s foreign demand increase by 76. 55% in China. The change of production sources of foreign final demand,the variation of China‘s forward international industry linkage and the foreign final demand expansion are three main sources of the increase of domestic employment embodied in China＇s foreign demand,which make domestic employment increase by 181. 02%,125. 56% and 46. 77% respectively. The change of domestic labor input intensity and the composition of final demand goes against the increase of domestic employment embodied in China＇s foreign demand. Therefore,in order to expand employment channel and improve the quality of employment,we could speed up the opening up of producing services and encourage producing services export.

关 键 词：外需隐含国内就业 多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型 结构分解分析 全球价值链 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]