中国城镇化进程中的城市序贯增长机制  

Sequential City Growth in Chinese Urbanization

作　　者：余壮雄[1] 张明慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学产业经济研究院,广东广州510632

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2015年第7期36-51,共16页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目"推动经济发达地区产业转型升级的机制与政策研究"(批准号71333007);广东省自然科学基金一般项目"基于企业内在技术结构调整微观视角的产业升级研究"(批准号S2013010013826);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"城镇化对地区与产业资源配置的影响"(批准号15JNQM008)

摘　　要：改革开放以来,中国的城市发展战略经历了从"偏向中小城市"到"城市自由竞争"再回归到"偏向中小城市"的振荡调整,有关城市发展战略的效率问题一直是学界关注的焦点。结合中国经济发展的特征,本文通过构建理论模型刻画了城镇化进程中城市序贯增长的"接力赛"机制,揭示了城市发展优势随着城镇化进程从最大城市不断向规模次之的城市序贯转移的过程。在此基础上,利用中国2003—2013年"城市自由竞争"时期的城市数据对城市序贯增长的假说进行了检验。实证结果表明,随着样本的后推,城镇化效率与城市规模的关系从早期左低右高的"U型"结构不断扁平化,并趋于向"倒U型"结构反转;特大城市的城镇化优势正在不断向大城市甚至中大型城市转移。就效率的角度而言,当前新型城镇化的发展方向应该定位于城市人口250万—700万的中大型城市与大城市,以避免特大城市与小城市过度发展带来的效率损失。Since the reform and opening, the urban development strategy of China has been changed from ＂small and medium-sized cities first＂ to ＂city free competition＂ and then back to ＂small and medium-sized cities first＂ again. The efficiency of urban development strategy has been a hot topic for research. Combined with features of the Chinese economy, this paper proposes a theoretical model to disclose the mechanism of sequential city growth in Chinese urbanization, and explores that the urban development advantage transfers from the biggest city to its smaller sequentially in the urbanization. Moreover, we investigate and verify the hypothesis of sequential city growth using the Chinese city data from 2003 to 2013, which covering the whole period of ＂city free competition＂. The results show that the relationship about the efficiency of urbanization and the city size has been flattening from an U-shaped structure with higher left side, and reverting to an inverted U-shaped structure, that is to say, the development advantage of giant cities bas been declining and transferring to big and medium-big cities. The Chinese new urbanization should orientate on the big and medium-big cities with population from 2.5 millions to 7 millions, and avoid the loss of efficiency that caused from excessive development of giant cities or small cities.

关 键 词：序贯增长 城镇化 城市发展 最优城市规模 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]