Assimilating AMSU-A Radiance Data with the WRF Hybrid En3DVAR System for Track Predictions of Typhoon Megi(2010)  

作　　者：SHEN Feifei MIN Jinzhong 

机构地区：[1]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2015年第9期1231-1243,共13页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Fundamental 973 Research Program of China(Grant No.OPPAC-2013CB430102);Natural Science Foundation of China(41375025);the Priority Academic Program Development(PAPD) of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions

摘　　要：The impact of assimilating radiances from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A（AMSU-A） on the track prediction of Typhoon Megi（2010） was studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model and a hybrid ensemble threedimensional variational（En3DVAR） data assimilation（DA） system.The influences of tuning the length scale and variance scale factors related to the static background error covariance（BEC） on the track forecast of the typhoon were studied.The results show that,in typhoon radiance data assimilation,a moderate length scale factor improves the prediction of the typhoon track.The assimilation of AMSU-A radiances using 3DVAR had a slight positive impact on track forecasts,even when the static BEC was carefully tuned to optimize its performance.When the hybrid DA was employed,the track forecast was significantly improved,especially for the sharp northward turn after crossing the Philippines,with the flow-dependent ensemble covariance.The flow-dependent BEC can be estimated by the hybrid DA and was capable of adjusting the position of the typhoon systematically.The impacts of the typhoon-specific BEC derived from ensemble forecasts were revealed by comparing the analysis increments and forecasts generated by the hybrid DA and 3DVAR.Additionally,for 24 h forecasts,the hybrid DA experiment with use of the full flow-dependent background error substantially outperformed 3DVAR in terms of the horizontal winds and temperature in the lower and mid-troposphere and for moisture at all levels.The impact of assimilating radiances from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A（AMSU-A） on the track prediction of Typhoon Megi（2010） was studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model and a hybrid ensemble threedimensional variational（En3DVAR） data assimilation（DA） system.The influences of tuning the length scale and variance scale factors related to the static background error covariance（BEC） on the track forecast of the typhoon were studied.The results show that,in typhoon radiance data assimilation,a moderate length scale factor improves the prediction of the typhoon track.The assimilation of AMSU-A radiances using 3DVAR had a slight positive impact on track forecasts,even when the static BEC was carefully tuned to optimize its performance.When the hybrid DA was employed,the track forecast was significantly improved,especially for the sharp northward turn after crossing the Philippines,with the flow-dependent ensemble covariance.The flow-dependent BEC can be estimated by the hybrid DA and was capable of adjusting the position of the typhoon systematically.The impacts of the typhoon-specific BEC derived from ensemble forecasts were revealed by comparing the analysis increments and forecasts generated by the hybrid DA and 3DVAR.Additionally,for 24 h forecasts,the hybrid DA experiment with use of the full flow-dependent background error substantially outperformed 3DVAR in terms of the horizontal winds and temperature in the lower and mid-troposphere and for moisture at all levels.

关 键 词：data assimilation RADIANCE observation operator 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P435