菏泽冬季日光温室内气温预测  

Winter Temperature Forecast inside Solar Greenhouse in Heze

作　　者：李瑞英 

机构地区：[1]山东省菏泽市气象局,菏泽274000

出　　处：《气象科技》2015年第3期551-556,共6页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206020)资助

摘　　要：利用2012—2013年冬季菏泽巨野日光温室内的小气候观测资料分析了温室内最低气温、最高气温与当天及前一天温室内外各气象要素的相关性,在删选出相关显著要素的基础上,采用主成分分析法建立了温室内气温预测模型。结果表明:1温室内最低气温与当天及前1天温室内外8个气象要素的相关性比较显著,温室内最高气温与当天及前1天温室内外9个气象要素的相关性比较显著,而且各气象要素之间也存在较好的相关性。2主成分回归分别提取了影响温室内最低气温、最高气温的3个主成分因子,建立的温室内气温预测模型通过了显著性检验。3回代检验的结果为,不同天气状况下的最低气温预测值和实际值的平均绝对误差在1℃左右,不同天气状况下的最高气温预测值和实际值之间的平均绝对误差在1.5℃左右。经2013—2014年冬季的温室小气候数据应用检验结果为,不同天气状况下的最低气温、最高气温预测值与实测值的平均绝对误差分别在1.1℃和1.5℃左右,其中晴天条件下的最低气温检验效果较好,绝对误差为0.9℃,寡照天气下的最高气温检验相对较好,绝对误差为1.4℃。The correlation between minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and other meteorological elements on that clay and the previous clay are analyzed by using the meteorological observation data inside solar greenhouse in winter of 2012 and 2013. The forecast model is established by using the principal component regression based on the significantly related elements. The results show： （1） There was significant correlation between minimum temperature and 8 meteorological elements inside and outside the greenhouse on that day and previous day, while maximum temperature and 9 meteorological elements had significant correlation, and similar correlation also existed between these elements. （2）The principal component regression extracted 3 principal component factors influencing minimum and maximum temperature inside solar greenhouse, and the forecast model of temperature passed significant testing. （3） The results of fitting test show that the average absolute errors of forecast minimum temperature in different conditions are 1 ℃ or so, while the average absolute errors of forecast maximum temperature in different conditions are 1.5 ℃ or so. The results of application test show that the average absolute errors are 1.1 ℃ and 1.5 ℃, respectively, and especially the test results of minimum temperature are better in sunny conditions, with the absolute error being 0. 9 ℃; the test result of maximum temperature is better in sunless day, with the absolute errors being 1.4 ℃.

关 键 词：日光温室 预测 冬季 检验 

分 类 号：P457.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]