低碳经济背景下能源消耗、碳排放与经济增长的关系  

Relationship among energy consumption,carbon emission and economic growth under low carbon economy

作　　者：杨莎莎[1,2] 吴功亮 赵聪[3] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学法学院,武汉430074 [2]桂林旅游学院旅游城市化与区域可持续发展研究中心,广西桂林541006 [3]桂林理工大学人文社会科学学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《桂林理工大学学报》2015年第2期376-382,共7页Journal of Guilin University of Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(13CMZ052);国家旅游局旅游业青年专家培养计划项目(TYEPT201459);广西高等学校优秀中青年骨干教师培养工程项目(GXQG022014078)

摘　　要：通过VAR模型、协整检验、脉冲响应函数与方差分解,对中国31个省、市、自治区1995—2012年的能源消耗、碳排放与经济增长数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明:在某一技术发展阶段,三者间存在着一个相互协调的匹配关系,能源消耗促进经济增长的同时也增加了碳排放,而碳排放将会延缓经济增长,而从长期来看,低碳经济又会促进经济的健康可持续发展。这为经济社会的不同发展阶段的战略与政策制定提供重要参考价值。The empirical data of energy consumption,carbon emissions and economic growth were analyzed by cointegration test,impulse response function and variance decomposition of 31 provinces from 1995 to 2012 based on VAR model.The result shows that there is a coordinated matching relationship among them in a cer-tain technical developing stage.Energy consumption can promote economic growth as well as carbon emission, whereas carbon emission will slow down economic growth.In the long term and low-carbon economy ,the devel-opment of economy will be healthy and sustainable.It provides an important reference for the strategy of differ-ent phases and policy-making.

关 键 词：VAR模型 能源消耗 碳排放 经济增长 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]