祁连山东北缘最大风速气候特征  

Climate characteristics of the maximum wind speed in northeastern margin of Qilian Mountains

作　　者：郭小芹[1] 丁文魁[1] 钱莉[1] 曾婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2015年第3期446-453,共8页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：石羊河流域干旱灾害风险评估及防御对策研究(IAM201205)

摘　　要：依托祁连山东北缘5个基本站和35个区域站观测资料,通过回归重建1971-2013年最大风速数据库,运用mann-kendall检验、EOF经验正交函数、耿贝尔分布分析了研究区域最大风速特征。结果表明：最大风速在明显减小,民勤尤为明显（0.1879 m·s-1·a-1）,在最大风速分布上形成3个极值中心：一是以红沙岗为代表的北部荒漠地区（22.75 m·s-1）,二是以红山窑为代表的西部荒滩地区（21.76 m·s-1）,三是以乌鞘岭为代表的祁连山地（21.54 m·s-1）。以红沙岗、红山窑、丰乐、乌鞘岭为代表站,分析发现前三者最大风速递减率分别为-0.173、-0.104、-0.103,特征显著,但乌鞘岭基本围绕在平均值附近波动。年最大风速多出现在2~6月,尤其以4~5月份为高发期,占到全年的34.8%~56.8%,EOF第一特征向量进一步揭示了北部沙漠地区和祁连山地的典型风险特征。以南湖—红崖山—昌宁为界的北部沙漠地带在未来10 a、20 a、30 a、50 a间最大风速分别为29.18、30.20、30.82、31.63 m·s-1,为典型的风灾危险区域。本文用区域站资料为最大风速危险区划提出了一些分析结论,可作为项目设计、民生安全、经济发展的参考依据,一定程度上填补了研究空白。As one of the strongest sources of the sand storm in the north,it is very important to study the regional maximum wind speed. Depending on the data of 5 basic stations recorded from 1971 to 2013 and 35 regional stations recorded from 2009 to 2013,and then rebuilding the complete database for these stations by using the regression method,according to the Mann- Kendall examination,EOF empirical orthogonal function,the Gumbel distribution and so on,the change of maximum wind speed characteristics was studied. The studies have shown that in 1971-2013,the region’s maximum wind speed reduced obviously especially in Minqin County,Gansu Province,China（0.187 9 m·s-1·a-1）. There are 3 extremum centers on the distribution of the maximum wind speed： one is the northern desert region represented by Hongshagang Station,the second is the western beaches represented by Hongshanyao Station,the last is the Qilian Mountains represented by Wushaoling Station,these 3stations have obvious advantages in max wind speed observation so that they become the study area for the main characteristics of wind field. Selecting Hongshagang,Hongshayao,Fengle and Wushaoling as the representative stations,the paper found that the maximum wind speed decline rate in the first three stations are 0.173,0.104,0.103,but the change is not obvious in Wushaoling,and the decline rate changes just around the average value.Month maximum wind speed appears in unimodal distribution,the maximum is more likely to appear in February to June,especially in April and May,accounted for 34.8%-56.8% year,but there are still some differences between each station. Using EOF empirical orthogonal function to analyze the maximum wind speed,the cumulative contribution value of the first feature vectors is as high as 95.23%. Starting from the first eigenvector of eigenvalues to analyze the risk characteristics,the paper found that the northern desert areas and Qilian Mountains are typical risk areas,needs to take strict precautions against with. Using the Gumbel distri

关 键 词：最大风速 分布特征 EOF空间分布 重现期 

分 类 号：P425[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]