典型融雪期雪层融雪水出流条件模拟及分析  

Simulation and analysis of snow melt water outflow condition in typical snowmelt period

作　　者：张波[1,2] 刘志辉[2,3] 高云 房世峰[1,5] 

机构地区：[1]新疆环境保护科学研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [3]绿洲生态省部共建重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [4]新疆昌吉州环境监测站,新疆昌吉831100 [5]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2015年第3期502-509,共8页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"天山北坡典型流域积雪-冻土水热耦合中融水产汇流机制研究"(41171023);"集成陆面过程模式中LUCC动力学模型的发展及应用示范研究"(41201097)

摘　　要：融雪期雪层融雪水的运移及流出过程模拟乃是国际冰雪水文学研究的难点之一,准确模拟融雪水的出流过程对于春季融雪型洪水的预报具有重要作用。本研究基于EM50、农业小环境监测仪和一些常规监测手段,获取了典型融雪期雪层的雪粒径、雪深及日气温数据,利用Excel、DPS、Arcgis及SPSS等分析软件对数据进行综合处理,并采用回归分析对融雪水的出流条件进行了建模分析,利用神经网络模型对模拟结果进行检验。结果表明:积温可作为融雪水外流的参考性指标,用于融雪水外流过程的预测分析;雪粒径和雪深都与融雪水外流积温条件存在显著相关性,且相关系数>0.96;逐步回归可以很好地模拟融雪水外流的积温条件,模拟的误差仅为124.5℃·min,时间误差为15 min,模拟效果良好。该研究对于进一步探讨融雪期雪层融雪水的出流规律、开展雪层融雪水运移过程的数值模拟等工作具有重要意义。Snow plays a vital role in cold region,especially the seasonal snow. In Xinjiang,China,there were several disaster for the melting of seasonal snow. The snowmelt flood can destroy the village,the farm land and kill the livestock,so that would bring loss of poverty and life safety. Recently,many researchers have done some research on snow and snow property,and the result turned to be good. But the research on the melting snow is not enough. Meanwhile,the snow runoff has been researched for a long time,and the established model can simulate the snow runoff at certain accuracy,so it is important to know the relatively correct time of snow melt water out flow. Snow melt water outflow in snowmelt period is very important for the simulation of snowmelt flood in Spring,because usually in this period,the time of snow runoff is hard to grasp. So if the runoff-yielding time is clear,the model can be anew the parameter for more accuracy simulation. In the paper,the data of snow particle size,snow depth and the daily air temperature are needed,and the snow melt water outflow condition will be acquired by means of anglicizing these data. The data of snow particle size,snow depth and the daily air temperature can be captured by means of the measurements equipments,such as EM50,Monitor of agricultural environment and some other normal surveillance in seasonal snowmelt period. After that,these data are processed by Excel,DPS,Arcgis and SPSS,and then regression analysis and neural network model are be used to analysis and simulation. The result shows that accumulated temperature can be used as the reference indicators for snow melt outflow,as well as prediction,and the accumulated temperature can be look upon as the snowmelt water outflow condition,because the accumulated temperature will indicate the runoff-yielding time. Snow particle size and snow depth exist significant correlation with snowmelt water outflow of accumulated temperature conditions,and the correlation coefficient can reach at less 0.88,that is much higher than

关 键 词：融雪水 出流条件 积温 模拟 

分 类 号：P343.6[天文地球—水文科学]