庆阳市污染型环境压力的变化趋势及其驱动因素分析  

Evolvement trend and driving factors of the pollution environment pressures in Qingyang City

作　　者：鹿晨昱[1] 王春娟[1] 张子龙[2] 薛冰[3] 李恒吉[4] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]兰州大学中国西部循环经济研究中心,甘肃兰州730000 [3]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,辽宁沈阳110016 [4]中国科学院兰州文献情报中心,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2015年第3期618-625,共8页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41261112;41101126;41301652;41471116);甘肃省科技支撑计划项目(1304FKCA067)

摘　　要：通过运用结构分解分析(SDA)模型,结合修正后的laspeyres方法,将以污染物为表征的环境压力分解为人口、经济、技术3种驱动因素的影响,据此对庆阳市2000-2013年间污染型环境压力的变化趋势及其驱动因素进行了研究。结果表明:2000-2013年间,庆阳市由污染物排放所产生的环境压力主要是由废水和工业废气所致,且环境压力在后期表现出持续增大的趋势。人口因素对环境压力变化的影响比较小,且较稳定;经济增长因素的正向效应明显,对环境压力的增大具有显著的促进作用,且这种正向效应呈增大趋势;技术因素的负向效应明显,对环境压力的增大具有显著的抑制作用,但这一抑制作用在后期有所减弱。3种因素对环境压力的影响程度视污染物类型不同而有所差异。With the rapid development of the economy in Qingyang City,Gansu Province,China,the scale of population and people’s living standards is increasing. The energy consumption and emissions of pollutants are increasing annually,which has significant impact on environment. In this paper,in order to investigate the evolvement trend and driving factors of the pollution environment pressures,based on per capital GDP,emission of waste water,emission of industrial waste gas and emission of industrial solid waste data in Qingyang City during2000 to 2013,and combined with the ideology of macro environmental economics,the environmental pressure of pollution was decomposed into three driving factors： population,economic and technology effect. The relative importance of the driving factors in dynamic changes was analyzed by using structure decomposition analysis（SDA）model combining with＂refined Laspeyres＂method. SDA model is based on the ＂work together to create and distributed evenly＂ principle,which was proposed by Finnish scholar SUN（1998）. The change of certain variables in economic system is decomposed into various forms relating to each variable,in order to estimates the influence of each variable changes to the independent variables. SDA is an important tool for quantitative research on influencing factors of economic structural changes in demand. SDA is based on input-output table,there have been widely used in many areas in recent years. By researching the evolvement trend and driving factors of the pollution environment pressures in Qingyang City,the result shows that the environmental pressure in the city was mainly caused by the emission of wastewater and industrial waste gases from 2000 to 2013,and showed an increasing trend at the late of the period. Population factor had less impact on the increase of this environmental pressure,while economic growth factor had obvious impact showed a rapid increasing trend. Technological progress mitigated it and had a significant inhibitory effect on the inc

关 键 词：结构分解分析 环境压力 经济 技术 庆阳市 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]