输水隧洞TBM施工工期全局综合敏感性分析  

Global Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis of Water-Conveying Tunnel TBM Construction Duration

作　　者：王晓玲[1] 赵梦琦[1] 洪坤[1] 毕磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点试验室,天津300072

出　　处：《天津大学学报（自然科学与工程技术版）》2015年第7期569-577,共9页Journal of Tianjin University：Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金资助项目(51321065);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20120032110045);国家自然科学基金重大研究资助项目(91215301)

摘　　要：分析工期的不确定性为施工工期的控制与优化提供科学依据.输水隧洞全断面隧道掘进机(TBM)施工工期是受到岩性相关参数、活动持续时间等不确定性因素和列车辆数等关联因素影响的复杂不确定性系统,工期不确定性过大会降低施工效率、影响施工进度.以往的研究大多没有对系统关键因素做进一步分析,少数针对工期的不确定性进行敏感性分析的研究也都局限在单因素敏感性分析上.因此,本文采用基于全局综合敏感性分析法的正交试验设计,首先对施工工期不确定性的影响因素进行了多因素综合敏感性分析;其次,确定了参数对工序工期不确定性的影响、工序工期对总工期不确定性的影响,以及参数对总工期不确定性的影响;最后,分析了施工参数主效应与耦合效应.将该方法应用于某引水式电站的输水隧洞TBM施工过程,结果表明:基于全局综合敏感性分析法的正交试验设计不仅可以识别出对工期不确定性影响显著的施工参数与施工工序,而且可以确定对工期不确定性影响显著的参数组合,可为施工机械的优化配置提供科学依据.Analysis of duration uncertainty providesa scientific basis for control and optimization of the construction duration. Water-conveying tunnel boring machine(TBM)construction system is a complex system with duration un-certainty,which is affected by uncertainty factors such as lithography relation parameters and activity duration as well as relation factors such as the number of trains. Too much uncertainty will reduce the efficacy and affect the schedule. Previous studies made no further analysis of the system’s key factors,and the few studies on duration un-certainty were also limited to single factor sensitivity analysis. Therefore,this paper adopted orthogonal test design based on global comprehensive sensitivity analysis. It firstly analyzed the effect on the construction period of uncer-tainty factors by adopting the multi-factor comprehensive sensitivity analysis,then determined the effect of parame-ters on process duration uncertainty,the effect of process duration on total duration uncertainty,and the effect of parameters on total duration uncertainty and finally analyzed parameters’ main effect and coupling effect simultane-ously. This design was applied to water-conveying tunnel TBM construction process of a diversion power plant. The result shows that orthogonal design based on global comprehensive sensitivity analysis can not only identify construc-tion parameters and processes which have a significant effect on construction duration,but also determine the pa-rameter combinations which have a significant effect on construction duration,thus providing a scientific basis for optimal allocation of construction machinery.

关 键 词：输水隧洞 TBM施工 全局综合敏感性分析 工期不确定性 正交试验设计 

分 类 号：TV512[水利工程—水利水电工程]