污染源减排时刻和减排比例对北京市PM_2.5浓度的影响  

Effects of emission-sources reduction time and ratios on PM_(2.5) concentration over Beijing Municipality

作　　者：翟世贤 安兴琴[1] 孙兆彬[2,3] 刘俊[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院大气成分研究所,北京100081 [2]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089 [3]中国气象局京津冀环境气象预报预警中心,北京100089 [4]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100871

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2015年第7期1921-1930,共10页China Environmental Science

基　　金：北京科技计划项目“气象条件对区域重污染过程影响机理及动态调控方法研究”(Z131100006113013);环保行业专项(201309071)

摘　　要：利用Model-3/CMAQ及京津冀地区高分辨率排放源清单,选取文献[19]中污染峰值当天启动50%污染源削减方案的同时,进一步设置了3种污染源控制方案（峰值当天启动75%源削减;峰值日前1d、2d开始启动25%源削减）,比较了峰值日前启动适量减排与峰值日当天启动大幅度减排的效果差异.结果表明：污染峰值当天启动50%、75%减排时,北京市PM2.5浓度下降率分布不均匀,高值区集中于PM2.5浓度高值区,减排后PM2.5浓度分布较减排前均匀.提前1~2d启动25%源削减时,峰值日北京市PM2.5浓度整体下降.城、郊PM2.5下降率均表现为当天减排50%小于提前1d开始减排25%;当天启动减排提高到75%时,城区PM2.5下降率大于提前2d启动25%减排,郊区表现为峰值前2d启动25%削减优于当天减排75%.将峰值前1d、2d启动25%减排分别与当天启动50%、75%减排时北京市峰值日PM2.5浓度下降率相减,北京市绝大部分区域下降率差值为正;峰值前1d、2d启动25%减排分别比峰值日启动50%、75%减排时北京市平均PM2.5多下降4.7μg/m3（6%）、2.9μg/m3（4%）.综上所述,在污染峰值来临之前采取适量减排较污染当天才启动大幅度减排更有利于北京市整体空气质量达标.Models-3 Community Multi-scale Air Quality （CMAQ） modeling system with a high resolution inventory data over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was implemented to investigate the different effects of ＇reducing a moderate amount of emission-sources ahead＇ against ＇reducing a large amount of emission-sources on the peak day＇ in the region, one of which is to cut emission-sources at a ratio of 50% on the peak day （Feb 13th, 2012） as described in reference [19]. Another 3 emission-sources reduction strategies： （1） cutting 75% emission-sources on the peak day; （2） cutting 25% lday before the peak day （3） cutting 25% 2days before, were newly designed. The simulation results under these cutting strategies showed that when starting emission-sources reduction ratios of 50%, 75% on the peak day, the PM/.5 concentration decreasing ratios distribution over Beijing were uneven, with high decreasing ratios at the high PM2.5 concentration zone, resulting in more evenly distributed PM2.5 concentrations. When reducing 25% emission-sources 1-2days ahead of the peak day, Beijing encountered an overall PM2.5 concentration decrease. Both urban and rural Beijing showed a higher PMa.5 concentration decreasing ratio when reducing 25% emission-sources 1day ahead than reducing 50% emission-sources on the peak day. When the emission-sources reduction ratio on the peak day was increased to 75%, the PM2.5 decreasing ratio was higher than reducing 25% emission-sources 2days ahead over urban Beijing, which was not seen over the rural. When the PM2.5 concentration decreasing ratios of cutting 50%, 75% emission-source on the peak day were subtracted fromcutting 25% emission-source lday and 2days ahead of the peak day respectively, the difference of PM2.5 concentration decreasing ratios over Beijing were mainly positive. Over whole Beijing, reducing 25% emission-source lday ahead would decrease more PM2.5 （4.7μg/m3, or 6%） than reducing 50% at the peak day; while reducing 25% emission-source 2days ahead would decrease

关 键 词：不同时刻启动减排 不同比例减排 北京市 PM2.5 区域空气质量达标 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]