东海区台风模拟数值敏感性试验研究  

Sensitive Numerical Simulation on Typhoon in the East China Sea

作　　者：刘祥宇[1] 陈学恩[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋环境学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第7期1-10,共10页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：小型阵变频高频地波雷达数据的开发和应用项目(201205032-4)资助

摘　　要：采用分辨率为1(°)×1(°)的NCEP全球格点再分析资料,基于WRF模式结合典型台风个例,研究了不同积云对流参数化方案以及边界层方案的参数化方案组合对东海区14个台风的台风路径与强度模拟的敏感性,并比较分析了不同参数化方案组合对大尺度环流场以及潜热释放的影响。结果表明,虽然东海区台风路径模拟对于参数化方案组合的选择具有一定的"个例依赖性",即不同台风个例的最佳参数化方案组合有所变化,但综合来看,依然能够较为清晰地揭示KF积云对流方案与MYJ边界层方案的参数化方案组合模拟台风路径效果最佳。东海区台风强度模拟对于参数化方案组合的选择没有"个例依赖性"的特点。研究发现,KF积云对流方案与YSU边界层方案的参数化方案组合模拟台风强度效果最佳。通过对台风典型个例的研究发现,KF积云对流方案与MYJ边界层方案的参数化方案组合模拟大尺度环流场效果最佳。对于强度"迅速加强"的台风,KF积云对流方案与YSU边界层方案组合模拟更加准确,KF积云对流方案与MYJ边界层方案组合敏感性稍差;对于强度"逐渐加强"的台风,KF积云对流方案与YSU边界层方案组合则敏感性过强,致使台风强度偏低,误差增大。此时,KF积云对流方案与MYJ边界层方案组合模拟敏感性较好,强度模拟更加准确。By using NCEP FNL global reanalysis data（1°×1°）,we applied WRF3.4（Weather Research and Forecasting Model.version 3.4）to explore the impacts of different combinations of cumulus parameterization schemes and boundary layer schemes on the simulation of the track and intensity of fourteen typhoons which influenced East China Sea and to compare and analyze the influence on the large scale circulation and release of latent heat by different combinations of parameterization schemes.The results were showed that even the best combination of parameterization scheme was different for each typhoon on the simulation of the typhoons＇ track,the combination of cumulus parameterization scheme KF and boundary layer scheme MYJ produced the best simulation on the track overall,and the combination of cumulus parameterization scheme KF and boundary layer scheme YSU produced the best simulation on the intensity of the typhoons overall.By analyzing the typical typhoons,the results were showed that the combination of cumulus parameterization scheme KF and boundary layer scheme MYJ produced the best simulation on the track due to its best simulation on the large scale circulation,and when the typhoon＇s intensity rapidly strengthened,sensitivity of the combination of cumulus parameterization scheme KF and boundary layer scheme YSU was better than the combination of cumulus parameterization scheme KF and boundary layer scheme MYJ,and when the typhoon＇s intensity rapid strengthened,sensitivity of the combination of cumulus parameterization scheme KF and boundary layer scheme MYJ was better than the combination of cumulus parameterization scheme KF and boundary layer scheme YSU.

关 键 词：WRF模式 台风 积云对流方案 边界层方案 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]