基于投入产出模型的流通业对经济增长的贡献:2005-2013  

Analysis of the Contribution of Circulation Industry to Economic Growth Based on Input-output Model: 2005～2013

作　　者：赵霞 

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学国际经济与贸易学院,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《广东财经大学学报》2015年第4期16-25,共10页Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(09XMZ038);兰州商学院2013年度重点科研项目(LZ201301)

摘　　要：基于产业部门之间的投入产出关联构建基本模型，从三次产业整体和细分部门两个层次定量测算2005年一2013年间流通业对各部门的产出贡献率和经济增长拉动率。研究结果表明：从对三次产业产出的贡献来看，流通业对第一产业的产出贡献最大，第三产业次之，对第二产业的产出贡献最小；从对三次产业增速的贡献来看，流通业对第三产业的增长拉动率最高，其次是第二产业，对第一产业增长的拉动率最低。从三次产业细分行业来看，第二产业中，流通业的产出贡献率由高到低依次是电力热力及水的生产和供应业、制造业、采矿业和建筑业；第三产业中这一排序为运输仓储邮政与信息服务业、房地产及租赁商务服务业、金融业、其他服务业。考虑到各产业实际增速后，流通业对第二产业各部门的增长拉动率与产出贡献率排序一致，对第三产业各部门的增长拉动率最高的是金融业，其次是运输仓储邮政与信息服务业。因而发挥流通业的经济增长带动作用，应加强生产资料流通体系建设，提高流通业服务第二产业尤其是制造业的能力；加强流通业与其他服务业的产业互动性，通过流通业有效带动其他服务部门快速发展；完善农产品流通体系建设，开发农村消费市场。The paper builds a basic model based on the input-output linkage among industries. It esti- mates circulation industry＇s output contribution rate and economic growth promotion rate respectively from two levels of three industries as a whole and sub-industries from 2005 to 2013. The results show that on the whole, circulation industry makes the biggest output contribution to primary industry. Considering industrial growth rate, circulation industry makes a big economic growth contribution to tertiary industry, followed by the secondary industry. From segmentation aspect, circulation industry exerts the largest contribution to pro- duction and supply of industries in electric heating and water, then manufacturing and mining, and construc- tion in the secondary industry; The order in the tertiary industry is the transport and information service in- dustry, real estate and leasing business services, finance, and other services. Considering industrial growth rate, in secondary sectors, circulation industry＇s economic growth contribution is the same as output contri- bution. However, it makes the biggest economic growth contribution to financial sector, and then transport and information service industry in the tertiary industry. So to play the role of circulation industry＇s economic growth, we can take measures as follows： strengthening the construction of production materials circulation system to improve the ability of circulation industry to serve the second industry, especially the manufactur- ing industry; reinforcing the interactivity of circulation industry and other services sectors to promote other services＇ rapid development ; improving the distribution system of agricultural products, and developing rural consumption market.

关 键 词：流通业 产出贡献率 经济增长拉动率 投入-产出模型 三次产业 

分 类 号：F724[经济管理—产业经济]