冬季中国近海海表温度的长期升高及其对中国降水的影响  

Long-term rising of SST over the marginal seas of China in winter and its impact on precipitation in China

作　　者：黄晓璐[1,2] 徐海明[1,2] 邓洁淳 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心和气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044

出　　处：《气象学报》2015年第3期505-514,共10页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41490643;41275094);国家重大科学研究计划项目(2012CB955600);江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目(PAPD);江苏省高校"青蓝工程"项目

摘　　要：利用1962—2011年HadISST海表温度资料和中国160站逐月降水等资料通过回归和相关分析等方法,分析了中国近海冬季海表温度(SST)的长期升高及其与中国冬季降水的关系。研究表明,近50年来中国近海冬季海表温度呈现明显的长期升高趋势。进一步分析发现,中国近海冬季海表温度的升高与长江中下游及以南地区冬季降水的增加存在显著的相关。最后,利用全球大气环流模式(CAM5.1)模拟研究了近海海温长期升高对中国降水的影响,模式模拟结果很好地验证了观测结果,表明中国近海冬季海表温度的长期升高确实对中国冬季降水存在影响。In terms of the HadISST dataset and monthly precipitation at the 160 stations of China during 1962-2011,the long-term change in sea surface temperatures （SST）over the marginal seas of China （the Bohai,Yellow,East China and South Chi-na Sea）in winter and its relationship with the winter precipitation over the mainland of China are investigated by the methods of regression and correlation.The results show that the winter SST over the marginal seas exhibit significant long-term warming trends in the past 50 years.A pronounced increase in the winter precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is closely related to the long-term trends of this winter SST warming over the marginal seas.Finally,a global general cir-culation model （CAM5 .1 ）is also employed to simulate the effect of the long-term warming over the marginal seas of China on the precipitation in China.It is found that simulated results are consistent with observations,which further confirms the impact of this long-term change in SST on the precipitation in China.

关 键 词：中国近海 海表温度 长期升高 冬季降水 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]