失效数据的威布尔分布建模与参数估计方法  

Weibull modelling and parameter estimation method of failure data

作　　者：顾国梁[1] 王景芹[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学电气工程学院,天津300130

出　　处：《河北工业大学学报》2015年第3期7-16,共10页Journal of Hebei University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51077039);河北省自然科学基金(E2012202111);河北省"百千万人才工程"人才培养资助项目(A2013007001)

摘　　要：低压电器产品的可靠性与生产生活密切相关,因而对产品进行可靠性评估显得十分重要,分析产品的失效数据是可靠性评估的重要手段.威布尔分布是一种常见的产品寿命分布,低压电器产品的失效数据服从不同参数的威布尔分布.本文研究了基于威布尔分布的失效数据的数据处理过程.首先研究了威布尔分布的图检验法,并用最小二乘法计算拟合直线方程和线性相关度.然后用F检验法对失效数据是否符合威布尔分布进行了验证.对于确定符合威布尔分布的失效数据,本文采用极大似然估计法计算威布尔分布参数的点估计值并由此计算参数和可靠性特征量的区间估计.最后,通过具体算例对一组接触器失效数据进行威布尔分布建模并计算相关参数.The reliability evaluation of is very important since low voltage electrical appliances are closely related to the production and living. Analysing the failure data is a good access to that. Weibull distribution is a common life distribution,the failure data of low voltage electrical appliances conform to Weibull distribution, but they have different parameters.In this paper, we do research on data processing of failure data which is based on Weibull distribution. Firstly we study the figure test method of Weibull distribution and use the least square method to calculate the fitting line equation and linear correlation. Secondly, we use F test method to verify that the failure data conform to the Weibull distribution. If the failure data fit for Weibull distribution. We use maximum likelihood estimation（MLE） to calculate the point estimation of Weibull parameters and we use it to calculate the interval estimation of the Weibull parameters and reliability characteristics. At last, we use the failure data of contactors to do the Weibull modelling and calculate the related parameters.

关 键 词：威布尔分布 数据处理 极大似然估计 点估计 区间估计 

分 类 号：TM930[电气工程—电力电子与电力传动]