配料法在暴雨精细化预报中的应用  

Applications of Ingredients-based Forecasting Methodology to Refine Rainstorm Forecast

作　　者：刘勇[1] 郭大梅[1] 姚静[1] 屈丽玮[1] 李明[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省气象台,陕西西安710015

出　　处：《干旱气象》2015年第3期514-520,共7页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局关键技术集成与应用项目"CMAGJ2012M50";中国气象局暴雨团队项目共同资助

摘　　要：利用欧洲中心高分辨数值预报产品提供的细网格气象要素场与陕西1 520个自动气象站降水资料相结合,采用配料法,选取对强降水有显著影响的3个气象因子比湿、垂直速度、温度,对陕西暴雨进行反演。在预报时效72 h内,提供网格点间距为0.25°×0.25°,时间间隔为3 h、6 h、12 h、24 h的强降水预报产品。该产品订正了EC强降水对陕西区域降水预报偏小的误差,提高了强降水预报的准确率,对暴雨的精细化预报具有一定的指导作用。Using high - resolution numerical forecast products of ECMWF and the observation data from 1 520 intensified automatic weather stations in Shaanxi, the paper adopted the ingredients - based forecasting methodology to forecast rainstorm in Shaanxi. Specific humidity, vertical velocity and temperature that have significant effect on rainstorm were chosen to retrive rainstorm precipitation. We produced rainstorm forecast products with O. 25 ° × 0.25 ° spatial resolution and time resolution of 3 hours,6 hours, 12 hours,2d, hours intervals within 72 hours, which verified the forecasting error of ECWMF in Shaanxi, and improved accuracy of rainstorm forecast, provided useful instruction of refined rainstorm forecast in Shaanxi Province.

关 键 词：配料法 暴雨 精细化 高分辨率数值预报产品 自动气象站 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]