2008-2013年南宁市梅毒小尺度的时空聚集性研究  

Study on the Spatiotemporal Clusters of Syphilis in Nanning Prefecture During 2008 to 2013 at the Township Level

作　　者：陈晨春[1] 唐咸艳[2] 

机构地区：[1]南宁市疾病预防控制中心,广西南宁530023 [2]广西医科大学公共卫生学院,广西南宁530021

出　　处：《中国皮肤性病学杂志》2015年第7期699-703,共5页The Chinese Journal of Dermatovenereology

摘　　要：目的探测2008-2013年南宁市乡镇尺度上的梅毒时空聚集性,为南宁市梅毒的防控提供科学参考。方法从乡镇尺度上,对2008-2013年南宁市梅毒新发报告率用泊松模型的时空扫描统计量进行小尺度时空聚集性探测,并用地理信息系统实现探测结果的可视化。结果 2008-2013年南宁市梅毒新发报告率共存在五个有统计学意义的高发性时空聚集区。其中,一级时空聚集区以上林县塘红乡为中心,辖15乡镇,始于2010年、止于2012年(LLR=928.35,P=0.000,RR=2.79);主要的次级时空聚集区以横县镇龙乡为中心,辖4个乡镇,聚集于2010-2012年(LLR=58.13,P=0.000,RR=1.55)。结论时空扫描统计量结合地理信息系统可定量探测梅毒的小尺度时空聚集性。2008-2013年南宁市梅毒时空聚集区主要高发于2010-2012年、聚集在来宾市与河池市交界处的马山县和上林县的部分邻接乡镇。Objective To study the spatiotemporal clusters of syphihs in Nanning prefecture during 2008 to 2013 at the township level. Methods On the scale of township, spatiotemporal scan statistics based on Poisson model was employed to detect the spatiotemporal clusters of syphilis in Nanning, from the year 2008 to 2013. Results Ultimately, five spatiotemporal clusters were detected by spatiotemporal scan statistics. The most hkely cluster happened in the region with Tanghong town as a center,including 15 towns,from 2010 to 2012 （ LLR = 928. 35, P --- 0. 000, RR = 2. 79 ）. Meanwhile, the mainl secondary cluster happened in the re- gion with Zhenlong town as a center,consisting of another 3 towns. Conclusion Spatiotemporal scan statis- tics and geographical information system （GIS） could be applied to quantitatively detect the potentially spati- otemporal cluster of syphilis. The spatiotemporal clusters with high syphilis incidence happened in some towns located in the adjacent regions of Mashan county and Shanglin county,during 2010 to 2012.

关 键 词：梅毒 地理信息系统 扫描统计量 时空聚集 

分 类 号：R759.1[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学]