集装箱船舶大型化与城市经济发展关系的系统仿真  

System simulation on the relationship between the large container ships and the port city economic development

作　　者：温文华[1] 范厚明[1] 张文静[1] 马梦知[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《大连海事大学学报》2015年第1期61-68,76,共9页Journal of Dalian Maritime University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61473053);国家发改委地区司项目(2013-47-04)

摘　　要：阐述集装箱船舶大型化的发展历程,分析其与城市经济发展的相关关系.运用系统动力学理论,分析集装箱船舶大型化与城市经济发展的因果关系,构建因果关系图和流图,建立系统仿真方程.以深圳市为例进行实证研究,得到系统仿真结果,并进行政策模拟.结果表明,港口城市适应集装箱船舶大型化的发展对其经济发展具有明显的促进作用;应用系统动力学方法研究集装箱船舶大型化与城市经济发展的关系是科学有效的.This paper elaborated the development history of the container ship maxmization and the relationship with the eco- nomic development of port city. The causal relationship be- tween the container ship size and the economic development- was analyzed by using the system dynamics theory with the causality diagram, the flow chart and the system simulation e- quations. Finally, based on the empirical research of Shenzhen city, system simulation and policy simulations were carried out. Results show that the increasing of container ship size can significantly promote its economic development of port cit- y. It is satisfactory to study the relation between the increasing of container ship size and the economic development of port city by using system dynamics method.

关 键 词：集装箱船舶大型化 港口城市经济 系统仿真 系统动力学 

分 类 号：U651[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]