浙江省县域经济持续增长的动态演化机制研究——一个财政支出结构的视角  

Study on Dynamic Evolution Mechanism of Zhejiang County-level Sustained Economic Growth:A Perspective of Fiscal Expenditure Structure

作　　者：方霞[1] 益智[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学金融学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]浙江财经大学金融学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《财经论丛》2015年第8期18-26,共9页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金资助项目(11YJCZH138);浙江省社会科学基金资助项目(11JCYJ12YB);浙江省高校人文社会科学浙江工商大学金融学重点研究基地资助项目

摘　　要：由美国的次级债引发的全球性金融危机使得全球各国经济都遭受重创,当前促进地区经济发展是政府的当务之急。本文通过从理论层面阐述政府支出结构等因素与经济持续增长的动态演化机制,并对2003-2012年浙江省58个县域政府支出结构对县域经济增长的影响进行了实证分析。研究表明:私人投资、就业人数、政府各项支出与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;从静态回归结果看,私人投资、全社会就业人口和政府各项支出对经济增长均有明显的推动作用,无论短期效应还是长期效应,私人投资对经济增长的促进作用最为明显,政府财政支出结构中消费性支出对县域经济增长的长期和短期效应都大于教育事业性支出和科学事业支出,教育事业性支出对县域经济增长的长期促进效应大于科学事业支出,短期则反之。The world economy is now suffering by the global financial recession caused by America＇s subprime crisis. Nowadays the government＇s priority is to promote regional economy. The paper theoretically elaborates the dynamic evolution mechanism of government spending and sustainable economic growth, and examines the impact of government expenditure structure and government expenditure scale of a panel of 58 counties of Zhejiang province from 2003 to 2012 on the regional e- conomic growth. Our research shows some long-term stable support from private investment, labor population, and government expenditure to the economic growth. Based on the results of static regression model, the private investment, labor population and government expenditure are positively and significantly correlated with economic growth; private investment is found to be the biggest contributor to the growth of economy either in long term or short term ; the consumption expenditure has more influ- ence on economic growth than education expenditure and technology expenditure both in long term and short term; compared with technology expenditure, education expenditure has more positive impacts on economic growth in a long run and more neg- ative impacts in a short term.

关 键 词：政府支出 经济增长 政府支出结构 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]