南方农户种植行为变化的影响因素分析——基于湖南省典型灌区的调查  

Analysis of the influencing factors of the planting behavior changes of southern farmers: A case study of the irrigation regions in Hunan Province

作　　者：黎红梅[1] 李娟娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学经济学院,湖南长沙410128

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2015年第4期617-623,共7页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(12CJY064);湖南省软科学重点项目(2011ZK2022);湖南省教育厅科学研究优秀青年项目(13B042)

摘　　要：农户种植行为的研究对农业政策的制定有重要启示作用,有利于政府采取有效措施引导农户种植行为变化符合现代农业发展要求,对促进农业现代化发展有重要意义。基于农户作为农业生产决策者的视角,采用湖南省典型灌区农户调查数据,运用普通二分类Logistic回归模型,探讨影响农户种植行为变化的因素。结果表明,灌区种植户文化素质不高,务农劳动力以中老年人为主,作物种植规模小,土地流转现象较少,田地细碎化程度较高;户主年龄、地区差异、农户家离集贸镇最近的距离、水资源是否匮乏以及土壤类型对种植行为变化有显著正向影响。基于实证研究结果,政府要因地制宜的做好种植结构调整规划,向农户推广适宜的农业栽培技术和作物品种,完善农田水利基础设施,加大农村交通基础设施建设,建立农产品交易场所,引导和规范土地流转,创新农业经营组织形式和发展适度规模经营,此外农户自身需改变传统小农生产方式,积极学习掌握现代农业知识。Understanding farmers＇ behaviors has significant implications for the formation of agricultural policies. It can also help the Government take effective measures to guide farmers＇ behaviors strategically to promote the development of modem agriculture. Based on the survey data of 200 rural households from the irrigation regions in Hunan Province and applying the ordinary binary classification Logistic regression model, this paper explored the influencing factors of farmers＇ planting behavior changes. Results show that 1） farmers in the irrigation regions have very limited education experience; 2） the main labor forces are elderly people; 3） production scales are very small; 4） arable land circulation is very limited; and 5） the age of the household head, geographical locations, distance from farmers＇ home to the nearest market, irrigation water and soil type have significant influences on farmers＇ planting behavior changes. Therefore, the paper suggests that the local Government should take proper measures by taking consideration of the local conditions for planting structure adjustment planning, promote the adoption of suitable agricultural cultivation techniques, improve irrigation and water conservation infrastructure, increase rural transportation capacity, establish niche markets for agricultural products, guide and standardize the land circulation, and encourage the innovations of agricultural management. In addition, farmers themselves should learn actively the knowledge of modem agriculture, and need to change the traditional small-scale peasant mode of production.

关 键 词：农户 种植行为 农业生产 LOGISTIC回归模型 湖南省 

分 类 号：F307[经济管理—产业经济]