新型农村养老保险对农民土地流转行为的影响——基于“中国健康与养老追踪调查”数据的倍差法分析  

The Impact of New Rural Endowment Insurance on Farmers' Land Transfer Behavior: A Difference-in-Difference Analysis Based on the Date of “ China Health and Retirement Tracking Survey”

作　　者：赵光[1] 李放[2] 黄俊辉[3] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学教务处,江苏南京210096 [2]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095 [3]广东医学院人文与管理学院,广东东莞523808

出　　处：《江西财经大学学报》2015年第4期49-58,共10页Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目"农村社会养老服务的现实需求与发展路径研究"(12BRK012);江苏省社科基金重点项目"被征地农民社会保障政策研究"(11GLA002);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目"江苏养老服务体制机制创新与政策研究"(2013ZDIXM011);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划"人口老龄化;养老保障与农村土地流转"(CXZZ13_0317);南京农业大学人文社会科学重大招标项目"江苏农村社会保障发展报告"(SKZD201206)

摘　　要：基于2008年和2012年中国健康与养老追踪调查的浙江、甘肃两省数据,运用倍差法对新型农村养老保险与农民土地流转之间的关系进行了实证分析,得出以下结论:当前发生土地流转行为的农民比例较低,2012年转出过土地的农民占总人数的15.04%,转入土地的农民仅占总人数的10.05%。但新农保的引入对于土地流转无论是在土地转出还是土地转入方面,都是有积极的正向作用,表明新农保对农村土地流转市场供给和需求两个方面的促进是十分有效的。2×2方格分析法得出新农保的促进作用在土地转出和土地转入方面的净影响仅在0.0306和0.0542的水平上,幅度仍比较小,说明当前新农保保障水平还有待进一步提高。Based on the data of Zhejiang and Gansu provinces in 2008 and 2012 China Health and Retirement Tracking Survey, this paper employs the difference-in-difference method to conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between the new rural pension insurance and farmers land transfer. The result shows that in the current land transfer behaviors the proportion of farmers is relatively lower, in 2012 the farmers who transferred out land takes up 15.04% of the total number, while the farmers who transferred in land takes up only 10.05% of the total number. But the introduction of the new rural old-age insurance has an active and positive effect on land transfer, whether land transfer out or land transfer in, indicating that the new rural endowment insurance is very effective in promoting supply and demand in the rural land circulation market. The method of 2 ×2 square analysis reveals that the promoting function of the new rural endowment insurance has a net impact on land transfer out and the land transfer in only at the level of 0.0306 and 0.0542, this range is still relatively small, indicating that the current level of protection from the new rural endowment insurance has yet to be further improved.

关 键 词：新型农村养老保险 土地转出行为 土地转入行为 倍差法 

分 类 号：F840.612[经济管理—保险]