南昌市住房限购政策效果的时空特征及土地溢出效应  

Housing Rationing Policy in Nanchang City: The Spatio-temporal Feature and Spilling Effect

作　　者：王雪峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学旅游与城市管理学院,江西南昌330032

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2015年第6期41-48,共8页China Land Science

摘　　要：研究目的:考察住房限购政策对南昌市住房价格变化的时空影响及对土地市场的溢出效应。研究方法:以双重差分模型为基础的计量分析。研究结果:限购政策对限购区和非限购区房价的影响无差异,但能显著降低南昌市整体实际房价增长速度;限购政策时间效应呈现出先扬后抑及消失的过程;空间效应表现为生活便利、交通迅捷以及教育资源越好的住房对抗限购政策的能力越强;溢出效应表现为住房限购导致土地成交率和土地溢价率明显回落。研究结论:基于双重差分法的估计能够更可靠地反映限购政策效果。The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of housing rationing policy partially applied in Nanchang City on the change of housing price and land market from both spatiotemporal and spilling effect perspectives. The method of econometric analysis based on Difference-in-Difference is used. The results show that the average effect of the policy is not significantly different between the areas implementing the rationing policy and the areas not, however the policy significantly reduces the growth rate of housing price in Nanchang as whole. The dynamic effect of the policy experiences a process of increasing, decreasing and then disappearing. The housing price of the plots with better facilities, transportation services, and education resources is more insensitive to the policy. The spilling effect of the policy shows at the decreasing in total transactions and the prices. The conclusion is the effect of the housing rationing policy in Nanchang can be more reliably estimated by method of Difference-in-Differences.

关 键 词：土地经济 住房限购 双重差分 时间效应 空间效应 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]