高耗能行业结构调整和能效提高对我国CO_2排放峰值的影响——基于STIRPAT模型的实证分析  

The Effects of Reducing Economic Share and Improving Energy Intensity of Energy Intensive Industries on the Turnover of CO_2 Emissions in China: A Scenario Analysis Based on STRIPAT Model

作　　者：李莉[1] 王建军[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京信息科技大学经济管理学院,北京100192 [2]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《生态经济》2015年第8期74-79,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71401054;71403030);北京市哲学社会科学基金项目(13JGC074;14JGC108)

摘　　要：调整高耗能行业的结构,提高高耗能行业的能源利用效率是我国实现低碳经济的重要路径之一,但这是一个渐进的过程,文章围绕如何设计这一过程展开研究。首先构建了我国CO2排放量与人口因素、人均不变价格GDP、高耗能行业结构、高耗能行业能效和第三产业结构之间的STIRPAT关系模型,通过对1980-2012年期间的数据模拟得到长期均衡发展关系模型,最后通过设定不同的情景研究高耗能行业结构和能效变化对我国CO2排放峰值的影响。研究结果显示,相对于第三产业结构、人口因素和人均不变价格GDP而言,我国高耗能行业结构和能效对CO2排放量的影响更大,我国在未来是有可能通过调整高耗能行业结构和提高高耗能能效在2030年达到CO2峰值。同时,情景模拟的结果还显示,降低高耗能行业结构和提高高耗能行业能效对于我国CO2峰值出现时间的影响作用相差不大,但加快降低我国高耗能行业的经济比重更有助于我国减少CO2排放水平。Restructuring and improving the energy efficiency of energy-intensive industries are important ways for Chinato achieve a low-carbon economy, but it is a gradual process, this article will focus on how to design this process. Firstly,our STIRPAT was used to describe the relationship among CO2 emissions and population factors, constant prices per capitaGDP, energy-intensive industries＇ structure, energy efficiency of energy-intensive industries and tertiary industry structurewas built. The data in 1980-2012 wera inputted to simulate the long-term equilibrium relationship, and finally the effectsof changes in energy intensive industries＇ structure and energy intensity on peak CO2 emissions were researched by settingdifferent scenarios. The results showed that, compared to the tertiary industrial structure, demographic factors and GDP percapita at constant prices, the structure of China＇s energy-intensive industries and energy efficiency exert a greater impacton CO2 emissions, and it is possible for China to reach the peak CO2 emissions at 2030 by adjusting the energy-intensiveindustries structure and improve the energy efficiency. Meanwhile, the results of the scenario simulations also show thatneither comparatively speed up restructuring or energy efficiency improving steps, the effects on the time of peak CO2emissions appearance are not very different, however accelerating the process of reducing the share of energy intensiveindustries in GDP is more helpful for China to reduce the aggregate level of CO2 emissions.

关 键 词：高耗能行业 CO2排放峰值 STIRPAT 行业结构 能效 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]