养老社会保险与生育率:基于OLG模型的理论分析与实证检验  

Old-Age Social Insurance and Fertility:Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on OLG Model

作　　者：刘子兰[1] 陈一格[2] 沈毓赟 

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学商学院 [2]厦门大学经济学院

出　　处：《湖南师范大学社会科学学报》2015年第4期13-21,共9页Journal of Social Science of Hunan Normal University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"我国养老金制度运行的经济效应研究"(10BJL024);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NECT-12-0718)

摘　　要：由于强制性计生政策是我国近年来生育率下降的重要原因,估计了不实行计生政策情况下的生育率调整值(ABR),分别计算了全国31个省(市)、自治区1997年至2012年间的养老社会保障水平值(SST),同时引入人均国内生产总值(GDP)等指标,采用面板回归方法分析了我国养老社会保险制度对生育率的影响。研究表明,养老社会保障水平每提高一个百分点,ABR下降0.264 8‰,而未经估计处理的生育率下降0.428 8‰。同时,经济发展水平也对生育率产生一定影响,人均GDP的对数值每提高1个百分点,ABR下降0.519 9‰,未剔除计生政策影响的生育率下降1.098 4‰。Since mandatory family plan policy has been the primary cause for fertility decline in recent years, this paper estimates the adjusted value of birth rate （ABR） under the assumptive condition that family plan policy were not implemented. Then the security level of Old-Age Social Insurance （SST） was calculated based on the relevant information about 31 regions from 1997 to 2012 respectively, and a panel data model composed of SST, per capita gross domestic product （GDP） and some other indicators was set up to analyzes the influence of old-age social insurance system on fer- tility. The paper concludes that every one percent increase in SST will lead to a 0.2648‰ reduction in ABR; and for fertility without estimation, a 0.4288‰ decline. The level of economy development also has some impact on fertility, when log per capita GDP increases 1%, ABR will fall 0.5199‰, the fertility without estimation will decrease 1.0984‰.

关 键 词：养老社会保险 生育率 两期OLG模型 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F842.67