量化宽松对经济复苏到底有多大的作用?  

To What Extent Can Quantitative Easing Help Recover Economy?

作　　者：苏治[1,2] 黄雨婷[3] 范为[4] 俞乔[4] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学统计与数学学院,北京100081 [2]中国人民大学国际货币研究所,北京100872 [3]中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院,北京100081 [4]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《管理评论》2015年第7期23-32,57,共11页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71473279);教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划";中央财经大学第二批青年科研创新团队项目;教育部博士点基金项目(20110016120001);教育部人文社科研究项目(10YJC790220);中央财经大学学科建设211经费

摘　　要：2008年金融危机后的全球性量化宽松在历史上尚属首次,对世界各大经济体迅速产生巨大影响,但量化宽松对经济复苏究竟有多大作用仍存在争议。本文基于量化宽松对全球经济产生影响的典型化事实,提出一种新型影响模式——"脉冲式响应",运用实体经济虚拟经济相背离的理论分析脉冲式响应的内在作用机理,引入TVP-BVAR模型实证分析美联储量化宽松货币政策对美国及中国经济的作用效果。结果表明,超宽松的货币刺激在短期内对挽救金融危机、缓解经济衰退起到至关重要的作用,但长期看并不能持续拉动实体经济产出和就业的增长,不能持续推进经济复苏。挽救金融危机的政策不是通过量化宽松政策刺激投机性需求,而应该是通过财政转移支付、税收减免、大力扶持消费信用等以增加大众的真实收入刺激真实需求。The first ever global quantitative easing after the 2008 financial crisis quickly had a significant impact on the world＇ s economy, but its effect on the economic recovery remains controversial. This paper, based on the factual impacts that quantitative easing has on the global economy, puts forward a new influence model - ＂Pulse Response＂, uses the theory of the virtual economy deviating from the real economy to analyze the intrinsic mechanism of impulse response, and also introduces TVP-BVAR model to empirically analyze the effects of the Fed＇ s quantitative easing monetary policy on the United States and China. The results show that the ultra-loose monetary stimulus in the short term played a crucial role in rescuing the financial crisis and easing the recession, but in the long term it cannot continuously promote real economic output and employment rate, nor constantly drive economic recovery. The financial crisis curbing policy should aim to increase the public＇ s real income and boost the real demand through fiscal transfer payment, tax breaks and strong support for the consumption credit, rather than stimulate speculative demands through the quantitative easing policy.

关 键 词：量化宽松 脉冲式响应 TVP—BVAR模型 

分 类 号：F827.12[经济管理—财政学] F171.2F124