休谟的概率思想探赜  

On Hume's Thoughts of Probability

作　　者：赵楠楠[1] 顿新国[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学哲学系,南京210023

出　　处：《科学技术哲学研究》2015年第4期37-41,共5页Studies in Philosophy of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"归纳悖论与确证逻辑新探"(11BZX061)

摘　　要：在休谟的概然性思想中,概然性是非恒常结合、概然推断和先验概率的三位一体,不仅实现了休谟问题与因果关系的结合,而且呈现出概率的古典状态,促进了概率论因果路径的开辟。休谟将概然性与信念同构,借助信念的活力对概然性进行量化,描述了客观的等概率事件,进而将涉及主体置信的主观概率诉诸信念的等级之差,开创了概率主观主义的先河,对当代的认知科学、知识论研究具有启发意义。In Hume＇s view,probability is constituted by the conjunction of inconstancy,probable inference and transcendental probability,which not only combines the problem of Hume with causality,but also manifests the original conception of probability and also creates a probabilistic approach to the study of causality. Hume makes probability isomorphic with belief and quantifies it by virtue of the vivacity of the latter. He describes the objective equiprobable event and then interprets the subjective probability which involves subjective confidence by means of the subtraction among different degrees of belief. Hume＇s research pioneers in the study of subjectivist probability and is very instructive to the research of the contemporary cognitive science and epistemology.

关 键 词：概然性 信念 机会概率 主观概率 

分 类 号：N02[自然科学总论—科学技术哲学]