基于最小叉熵的资源环境承载力多专家综合评价方法  

COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION METHOD OF EXPERTS DECISION BASED ON PRINCIPLE OF MINIMUM CROSS-ENTROPY IN CARRYING CAPACITY OF RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT

作　　者：李冉[1,2] 何大义[1,2] 许加强 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学人文经管学院,北京100083 [2]国土资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室,北京100083

出　　处：《资源与产业》2015年第4期69-74,共6页Resources & Industries

基　　金：中央高校基本业务费优秀教师类项目(2-9-2015-033);中国地质调查局工作项目(1212011088020);国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201211003)

摘　　要：基于专家效用函数构建不同专家的主观评价矩阵,利用熵权法确定评价指标的客观权重和主观权重,根据最小叉熵准则建立权重集成模型,提出了资源环境承载力多专家综合评价方法。该方法在不需要任何附加信息的情况下,将主客观赋权相结合,既避免了赋权的主观随意性,又避免了过分从数据中挖掘信息。此外,从经济子系统、人口子系统、自然资源子系统和环境子系统4个方面构建资源环境承载力评价指标体系,运用该方法对广西北部湾城市群资源环境承载力进行评价。结果表明,南宁市发展迅速,其人口和GDP规模较大,北海市因港口业的壮大带来GDP的提升,而钦州市和防城港市排名最后,有待思考如何整合资源和增加城市的综合实力。研究结果与实际情况一致,验证了这一方法的可行性与合理性。This paper, based on expert effect formula establishing expert subjective assessment matrix, uses entropy weighting to give objective and subjective weights of indicators, and presents multiple expert comprehensive assessment of carrying capacity of resources and environment on the basis of weights integrated model that is established by the minimum cross entropy. This method, without any added information, combines subjective with objective weights, which avoids not only the subjective random, but also the excessive information from data. This paper, from subsystems economy, population, natural resources and environment, sets up comprehensive evaluation index system of carrying capacity of resources and environment which is used in Guangxi＇s Beibu Gulf city agglomeration. The results show Nanning has a rapid growth with big population and GDP; Beihai has a rising GDP thanks to its coastal locality;Qinzhou and Fangchenggang ranks at bottom, which need to consider how to consolidate resources and increase urban comprehensive intensity. The study is consistent with the actual, which validates the method.

关 键 词：综合评价 群决策 最小叉熵 熵权法 资源环境承载力 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]