大西客专太原与晋中两地城际客流量的预测研究  

The Prediction of the Intercity Passenger Flow of Taiyuan and Jinzhong on Datong-Xi'an Passenger Line

作　　者：李伟 

机构地区：[1]大西铁路客运专线有限责任公司,山西太原030027

出　　处：《山西科技》2015年第4期74-77,共4页Shanxi Science and Technology

摘　　要：为了研究同城化发展下大西铁路客运专线太原与晋中两地城际客流的变化规律,合理高效地规划设计开行城际列车,促进地区经济建设发展,分析了太原与晋中两地的区域客运量走势及其影响因素,运用四阶段法预测了通道内区域客流量、客流OD分布量以及公路、既有铁路与客专分担及转移、诱增客运量,最终对大西铁路客运专线沿线太原南至灵石东站间近期年度(2020年)的客流量进行了预测,为设计开行城际列车提供了参考。In order to study the change rule of the intercity passenger flow of Taiyuan and Jinzhong on Datong-Xi＇an Passenger Line under the urban integration development, carry out a rational and efficient plan and design of operating the intercity trains, and promote the regional economic development, this paper analyzes the trends and impact factors of the regional passenger flow of Taiyuan and Jinzhong, and by using the four-stage method, predicts the regional passenger flow in the channels, the OD distribution of passenger flow,and the passenger flow shared, transferred and induced by roads,existing railways and passenger dedicated railway lines, and predicts 2020＇s passenger flow between Taiyuan＇s South Railway Station to Lingshi＇s East Railway Station along Datong-Xi＇an passenger line＇s passenger dedicated railway line,which provides the reference for the design of operating the intercity trains.

关 键 词：大西铁路客运专线 客流预测 四阶段法 

分 类 号：U292.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]