基于综合评判模型的煤与瓦斯突出危险程度预测  

Prediction on dangerous level of coal and gas outburst based on comprehensive evaluation model

作　　者：梁冰[1] 秦冰[1] 孙维吉[1] 王岩[1,1,2] 孙雅楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学力学与工程学院,辽宁阜新123000 [2]煤科集团沈阳研究院有限公司,辽宁抚顺113122

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2015年第7期129-134,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2011CB201206);国家自然科学基金青年项目(51304111);辽宁省科技厅项目(20131044)

摘　　要：针对某些矿井出现的"低指标"突出现象,提出一种新的综合评判模型,用于煤与瓦斯突出危险程度预测。选取鉴定煤与瓦斯突出的4个单项指标临界值作为参考点,建立煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测综合评判准则。当评判距离Ri属于[0,1],判断突出强度;当Ri属于[-1,0],判断突出危险可能性,量化了突出强度及可能突出的危险程度,并划分突出强度、突出危险可能性等级。利用模型对淮南矿突出程度进行预测,预测结果与实际吻合,实现了定性语言与定量数据相结合的突出预测,为煤与瓦斯突出提供了一种新的预测方法。Aiming at the ＂ low indicator＂ outburst phenomenon in certain mine,a new comprehensive evaluation model was put forward to predict the dangerous level of coal and gas outburst. The critical value of four individual indicators to identify the coal and gas outburst were selected as reference points,and the comprehensive evaluation criteria for prediction on danger of coal and gas outburst was established. When the evaluation distance R was between [0,1],the outburst intensity was judged,and when R was between [- 1,0 ],the possibility of outburst danger was judged. The outburst intensity and possible dangerous level of outburst were quantified,and the grades of outburst intensity and possibility of outburst danger were classified. The degree of coal and gas outburst in Huainan mine was predicted by using the comprehensive evaluation model,the prediction results matched well with the actual situation,and the outburst prediction with a combination of qualitative language and quantified data was realized. It provides a new prediction method of coal and gas outburst.

关 键 词：煤与瓦斯突出 综合判据 量化 等级划分 预测 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]