中国城镇化质量、工业化与农业现代化互动关系的动态分析——基于因子分析和VAR模型  

Dynamic Analysis of Interaction of Urbanization Quality, Industrialization and Agricultural Modernization in China——Based on Factor Analysis and VAR Model

作　　者：张欢欢[1] 王祖山[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南民族大学经济学院

出　　处：《现代城市研究》2015年第8期72-78,共7页Modern Urban Research

摘　　要：构造城镇化质量、工业化和农业现代化指标体系,通过因子分析,分别得出三者的综合得分,进而通过构造VAR模型,进行脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解,得出:城镇化质量、工业化和农业现代化各自对其自身的影响最大,其中农业现代化的初期效果较为明显,工业化长期内效果下降;农业现代化与城镇化质量相互促进,形成良性的乘数循环效应。最后,提出相关建议。First, the paper constructs urbanization quality, industrialization and agricultural modernization index systems, and obtains their composite scores through factor analysis. Then the paper makes the VAR model, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, and obtains the results： urbanization quality, industrialization and agricultural modernization gets the biggest impact from themselves; the initial effect of agricultural modernization is more obvious; the long-term effect of industrialization decreases; agricultural modernization and urbanization quality promote each other and form a virtuous cycle multiplier effect. Finally, the paper gives some suggestions.

关 键 词：城镇化质量 工业化 农业现代化 因子分析 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济] F424F320.1