长江三角洲城镇化与旅游业协调发展效率研究  

Research on the Efficiency of Coordinated Development of Urbanization and Tourism:Based on the Empirical Study of Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：刘金伟[1] 王承云[2] 孙飞翔[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学 [2]上海师范大学旅游学院

出　　处：《现代城市研究》2015年第8期127-132,共6页Modern Urban Research

基　　金：上海市自然科学基金(14ZR1430600);上海市教委科研创新重点项目(13ZZ106)联合资助

摘　　要：根据旅游业发展与城镇化过程的相互关系构建二者协调发展水平评价指标体系,采用层次分析法对各层因素进行排序,计算指标权重;参照评价技术有效性的BC2模型构建以城镇化水平指标为输入,旅游业发展为产出的城镇化旅游业协调发展效率评价DEA模型,对2011年长三角地区16城市的城镇化与旅游业协调发展效率进行实证分析。结果表明:1上海、杭州、绍兴为DEA有效,其他城市均小于1,宁波、舟山、泰州z值接近于1;表明此类城市不为技术有效,城镇化与旅游业协调发展水平低,旅游业尚未发展到成熟稳定阶段;2城镇化不可逆,通过提高旅游业发展产出,使得在投入不变条件下增加产出也能够达到技术有效和规模有效;3城镇化与旅游业发展具有动态耦合关系,城镇化与旅游业具有相互促进作用。According to the relationship between tourism development and urbanizationprocess, urbanization and tourism coordination development level evaluation index system, AHP method to sort the layers of factors, the index weight matrix, reference to evaluation the effectiveness of BC2 model to construct urban development level index as input, tourism as the output of tourism DEA efficiency evaluation model of coordinated development of urbanization, urbanization of 16 cities in 2011 elderly triangle and tourism coordinated development to carry on the empirical analysis of efficiency, results show that the Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shaoxing is DEA efficient, Ningbo, Zhoushan, Taizhou whose z value is close to 1, not to the effective is relatively high with the urbanization, shows that this kind of city is not effective for technology, the development of tourism has no mature and stable stage, irreversible urbanization development, tourism development by raising the output, increase in investment under the condition of constant output also can achieve effective technology effectively and scale.The application of the model factors help to explain the city＇s economic and social basis for the development of tourism, tourism guide the development of urbanization and coordinate with each other.

关 键 词：城镇化 旅游业 协调发展效率 DEA方法 长江三角洲 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济] F592.7