社会距离对基线比例忽略的影响  

The Effect of Social Distance on Base-rate Neglect

作　　者：李燕[1,2] 徐富明[1,2] 孔诗晓[1,2] 史燕伟 刘程浩[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学心理学院暨湖北省人的发展与心理健康重点实验室 [2]青少年网络心理与行为教育部重点实验室,武汉430079

出　　处：《应用心理学》2015年第1期3-11,共9页Chinese Journal of Applied Psychology

摘　　要：基线比例忽略是指在不确定情境中个体进行决策和判断时不能充分利用或者忽略基线比例的现象。它是一种常见的决策偏差。实验采用两个2(社会距离:远vs近)×2(基线比例:高vs低)的被试间设计,探索社会距离对基线比例忽略的影响。实验1的结果表明,在评优判断情景中,基线比例忽略随社会距离的增加而减弱,个体更多采用基线信息进行判断;实验2的结果发现,在患病判断情景中,基线比例忽略随社会距离的增加而减弱,但对基线信息的使用并没有表现出与实验1相同的趋势。总而言之,本实验的结果表明社会距离影响基线比例忽略。Base-rate Neglect refers to the phenomenon which describes people＇s tendency to underestimate or neglect base-rate information in probability judgment and decision making. The present study conducted two experiments with 2 （social distance： distant, near） x2 （base rate： high, low） between-subject design to examine the modulate effect of psychological distance. The results of Experiment 1 indicated that the social distance affected the base-rate neglect in the selection circumstances, and the base-rate neglect effect was weakened with increasing social distance, thus individuals tended to make probability judgments based on base rate. The results of Experiment 2 manifested that decision-making regarding disease risk was susceptible to the base-rate neglect, and the base-rate neglect effect was weakened with increasing social distance, but individuals did not make probability judgments based on base rate. Taken together, results provided evidences that social distance could affect the base-rate neglect in daily decisions.

关 键 词：判断与决策 基线比例忽略 心理距离 社会距离 

分 类 号：B849[哲学宗教—应用心理学] C93[哲学宗教—心理学]